✅ BANKED WINS TODAY
No results in yet — first race hasn't jumped. This panel fills in automatically as races are declared.
⚠️ THE ONE THING TO KNOW
Three of the day's headline value bets were scratched before the first race, and Sandown is getting wetter. Savoyard (Sandown R4 — four sources, Zerafa's Crack, two Last Man Standing legs), Recon (Sandown R9 — Ozracingform's Best Value of the day) and Mr Verse (Sandown R10 — Ozracingform's Best Each-Way and two legs of his parlay) are all out. Gator's parlay is dead before it starts. Sandown copped 8mm overnight with more falling; every Sandown price below was set on a Good 4 on Friday morning and Wintelligence say it could "race as a genuine heavy track". The Best Bets HEAVY column is on the Wet Trackers tab.
🔴 Mega Locks Top of the consensus
Sandown R7 · G3 So You Think 1500m
🔴 MEGA #1#2 EVAPORATE$2.20
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Melb)Wintelligence 7/10 key playBest Bets BET OF THE DAY
Hutch CRACK $50Simon CRACKGrace Hayes BEST
Brad DavidsonRichardsMarshallBarkerZerafaRicho
WHYTop rater under Set Weights and Penalties, does his best work second-up, pet trip is 1500m, and his last win came second-up over this track and trip with Blake Shinn on — the exact setup he gets today. Took two Group 1 horses (Cosmic Crusader, Private Eye) to beat him in the Lawrence from a slow getaway. Every Last Man Standing on the panel runs through him.
Price, not form, is the problem. $2.20 for an 11-source Mega is the pattern week one flagged — the more they agree, the less it pays. Ozracingform's #3 Zambardo ($5.50, Wintelligence Value) beat Evaporate in the All-Star Mile when Evaporate was second-up last prep, and is "trialling super". Best Bets rate Freedom Rally 72 second. Multi anchor first, win bet second.
Sandown R3 · BM88 1000m
🔴 MEGA #2#8 TRES MAGNIFIQUE$2.90
Hutch NEXT BESTOZR parlay legBest Bets rating 82 (top)
Wintelligence 6/10Brad DavidsonOZR #1Richards win betMarshallBarkerRicho all-upSimon
WHYUnbeaten at 1000m. Won three from three last prep — by seven lengths first-up, then bolted in over this track and trip, then won as a $1.35 chance in town. Two trial wins this prep by an aggregate 16 lengths. 53kg. Gator: "she looks dangerous."
Danger: #4 BEHAVIOUR $5.00 — Wintelligence's Value, Brad's #2. Won or beaten under half a length in his last four in similar company, and this is a speed-heavy race that sets up for a line-chaser from gate 1. On a heavier track Richards moves #6 Mainmankash (rated 80) into his top three.
Sandown R9 · G3 Chautauqua 1300m
🔴 MEGA #3#6 PERSIAN SPIRIT$3.30
7 RECON SCR
Asgari BEST BETRichards WIN BET
Wintelligence 5/10Brad DavidsonZerafaHutchisonRichoSimonOZR #3
WHYWintelligence: "the sharpest of this lot over 1300m, he is drawn the best, and he is the best wet tracker in the race." Won a BM90 by 4.25L on Cup Day last spring, ran a cracker in the Oakleigh Plate short of his best trip, and closed strongly first-up in the Regal Roller beating home Warnie and Recon.
Recon's scratching changes the shape. He was Ozracingform's Best Value of the day and Simon's second pick. Gator's card now falls to #3 WARNIE — also Marshall's and Barker's pick (3 sources) — "fabulous fresh in the Regal Roller flying home on a day not many did." Best Bets rate Here To Shock 73 and Tennessee Bound 72 above the lot.
Sandown R6 · LR McKenzie 1300m
🔴 MEGA #4#3 BLIND RAISE$3.50
Brad BEST VALUE (rates $3.80)Kneebone BEST BETRichards WIN BET
Wintelligence 5/10OZR #1BarkerZerafaSimon
WHYTwo from two to start — a Sandown debut win then the Listed Anzac Stakes, both arrogant. Forgive the Sires' (slow recovery, nasal discharge). Lead-up trial "sensational" (Wintelligence), "excellent" (Gator), "sharp jump-out win" (Brad). Won here first-up last prep.
#2 CLOSER TO FREE $2.30 is Sacked by both Zerafa and Simon — and is Matt Nevett's Best Bet. Wintelligence have him "hardest to beat" and Best Bets rate him only 67. The horse the ratings actually like is #5 WOLF GAP (80, top of the race) — Richo's pick, beat American Eagle in his latest trial, "wary" says Gator. On a Heavy track Richards drops Wolf Gap for Dustee.
Randwick R10 · BM94 1600m
🔴 MEGA #5#8 STARZINTHEIREYES$3.40
Brad WIN BETWintelligence 7/10 key playCasey WIN BETZerafa GET OUT STAKES
OZR #1Marshall
WHYTrialled "particularly well" and looks sharper this prep with a full Australian preparation under him. Gave 9kg to Sacrify at his Australian debut and just missed to in-form Tazima. Resumes at 1600m on his new home track.
Best Bets rate him only 60 — fourth — behind Franz Josef 80, The Mona Lisa 71 and Sneaky Sunrise 64. The Mona Lisa "is airborne, proven at 1600m, drops 4kg" (Gator #4, Brad #3). Sneaky Sunrise is Simon's Get Out and a dual acceptor who skipped Sandown to run here.
Randwick R4 · LR Drinkwise Cup 2400m
🔴 MEGA #6#1 THEBUDGIESMUGLA$2.30
Wizard of Odds NEXT BEST $2.35Wintelligence 7/10 key playCasey WIN BETJelfs BEST BETBest Bets rating 89 (top)
OZR #1MarshallBrad #2
WHYFive from five at 2400m with "this fabulous will to win" (Gator). The Wizard: "5 wins from 7 starts in the soft, Gibbons 4 wins and a 2nd from 6 on board." Back to his trip after a sound run short of it last start. Wintelligence's Value is Fernao $6.00.
Brad: "looks too short but not sure who beats him." His pick is #2 SO YOU ARE — also Chris Camilleri's Next Best — who led and beat Thebudgiesmugla last start and has a 1kg swing. Low confidence race for Brad, and he explicitly ties the doubt to the firmer ground.
Randwick R8 · G2 Concorde 1000m
🔴 MEGA #7#4 TEMPTED$1.80
UNBACKABLE
Richo CRACKCasey WIN BETBrad DavidsonOZR #1Wintelligence 6/10Marshall #2
WHY"Arguably the best sprinter in Australia" (Brad). Unbeaten fresh, ran 1:08.78 for 1200m beating Napoleonic easily, second in the 2025 Everest. Gets in well at the weights even over a trip short of her best.
Brad's own words: "hardest to beat but no appeal odds-on over 1000m." Danger is #1 HEADWALL $4.40 — Marshall's top pick, Wintelligence Value, rated 85, won this race last year — but hasn't raced since September 2025. Multi leg only. Richo's all-up place leg is the right use of her.
🔒 Locks 3–5 sources
Randwick R9 · G2 Chelmsford 1600m
🔒 LOCK#2 LINDERMANN$2.60
Brad BEST BET (rates $2.80) + Multi of the DayWintelligence 7/10 key playCasey WIN BETOZR #1Marshall #2
WHYHad excuses first-up chasing a hot speed. Much better when he can find the front and dictate, and that's the likely map — Wintelligence: "complete control of the lead." Won this race last year. Gator: "bone dry tracks the key and he always improves lengths second-up." Today is a Good 4.
Brad rates him $2.80 and he's $2.60 — "the price is shorter than hoped." Marshall's top pick is #9 FANGIRL $3.70, who gets "the right recipe" (Randwick, 1600m, dry) but "hasn't produced her best for some time." Best Bets don't have Lindermann in their top four.
Randwick R7 · G2 Tramway 1400m
🔒 LOCK#7 IDLE FLYER$2.60
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Syd)Wintelligence BEST BET 7/10Casey WIN BETMarshallBrad #2
WHYFour from four second-up. Group 1 Queen of the Turf winner who ran sixth in the Winx fresh hitting the line with Gringotts, Lady Shenandoah and Ceolwulf. Lobs behind the speed from gate 3.
Brad's value is #1 HEADLEY GRANGE — on top of his card ahead of Idle Flyer, "at the prices he gets the nod." Became a G1 winner last prep, won 3 of 5 fresh, no luck behind Beiwacht here. Simon has him in his all-up for a place. Best Bets rate Idle Flyer only fourth (71) behind Attica 76.
Sandown R5 · LR Atlantic Jewel 1300m
🔒 LOCK#10 PORTINARI$5.00
Strehlau BEST BETRichards WIN BETBrad DavidsonOZR #1RichoWintelligence Value
WHYStill a maiden but every one of her four runs was in a handy race with no luck. Ran home well against the pattern behind Moir favourite Natural Fling from gate 13 last start. Better gate, blinkers first time, and Gator thinks 1300m is ideal. Richards has her top on Soft and Heavy.
#4 PRETTY BABY $3.50 is Sacked by Richo despite three sources (Wintelligence, Simon, Kelton's travel tip) and an 86 rating. Gator's overlay is #2 RUBI'S CHOICE $14 — resuming, also rated 86, "1.3L off Streisand and Chayan before the spell. $14 looks big!"
Sandown R8 · G1 MOIR 1000m
🔒 LOCK#13 NATURAL FLING$3.10
Simon $80 WINHutch $75 WINRicho $60 WINOZR #1MarshallBrad #2Wintelligence threat
WHYBolted in fresh by four lengths eased down running fast time with 6kg above WFA. Gets in with 50kg. Six of the last twelve Moirs were won by the leader. Gator: "no issue back at 1000m, no issue wide gate in chute starts."
Nobody above five sources. Ole Dancer is Best Bets' top rating (80) and named by nobody. Brad's value is #3 SKYBIRD $15 "if rain arrives" — it has. Full money map on the Moir tab.
Sandown R10 · BM84 1600m
🔒 LOCK#5 CHANGING COLOURS$2.05
13 MR VERSE SCR
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10 · quaddie singleBrad DavidsonRichardsBarkerOZR #3Best Bets rating 72 (top)
WHYWintelligence's highest confidence of the day and the only quaddie single on any card. Two smart wins since a luckless fresh run — the latest as a $1.70 favourite in this grade, five lengths to third. Gator: "handles any track."
#15 SOMEWHERE $5–7 has four sources too — Hutchison, Richo, Marshall, and Gator once Mr Verse was scratched — plus Strehlau's Value and Wintelligence's Value. "Arguably best run in race vs pattern here last start, now has the weight swing on Stay Silent." Same count, three times the price. See Staking.
Sandown R2 · BM74 Mares 1600m
🔒 LOCK#6 BLUE WILLOW$5.50
WET ✓
Richards EACH-WAY + top of HEAVY columnBrad DavidsonMarshallHutchisonOZR #3Barker #2
WHYGator: "revelled in heavy running here prior. Wetter the better for her, but not out of it drier." No luck last week. Richards has her top on Soft, Good and Heavy.
#3 JENNI GONE BONKERS is Gator's #1 and Hutchison's Sack. Wintelligence and Simon are on #2 Celestial Zara (rated 88, two from two this prep). Zerafa and Barker want #4 Illyivy, who "keeps missing the start." Four different horses on top — treat as a race to bet small or skip.
Randwick R6 · G2 Furious 1200m
🔒 LOCK#2 PEMBREY$2.20
Brad NEXT BEST (rates $2.10)Camilleri BEST BETOZR #1Casey #2Wintelligence threat
WHYRan 1:08.7 winning the Silver Shadow first-up after "doing a power of work to lead" — sensational time over this track and distance. Likely leader again. Brad: "the one to beat if she reproduces."
#3 CHILLY GIRL $3.40 has Wintelligence and Casey's win bet, rated 90, unbeaten in two, track-record time. Two-horse race per the ratings (92 v 90, next best 82). Marshall breaks ranks with Oh Yes She Did $23.
Randwick R2 · Highway 1200m
🔒 LOCK#4 MRS GOLDBERG$5.00
Best Bets rating 94Brad DavidsonOZR #1Wintelligence 4/10Casey #3Marshall #3
WHYSmart return win in one of these putting the race away quickly in good time for the class. Nash Rawiller stuck with her over stablemate Wayburn — Brad reads that as a stable lead.
The two racebook tipsters go elsewhere — Casey to #12 Ready To Rush (rated 86), Marshall to #17 Andrea. Unbeaten #11 Lord Remlap (rated 86) is Gator's #3 from a wide gate.
Morphettville R3 · BM74 1950m
🔒 LOCK#7 GIGGENBACH
Rowland WIN BETSimon CRACK + Team Multi top 3Richards
WHYBoth racebook tipsters and Simon on top. Rowland keeps him top on Soft and second on Heavy. Kelton is on #6 Cradle Of Jazz, who Best Bets rate 80 — top of the race — against Giggenbach's 68.
Morphettville R9 · BM64 1250m
🔒 LOCK#10 YOU SEXY THING
Rowland WIN BETRichardsSimon
WHYSame three again. Ratings say #6 Obucci 80 is the class of the race (You Sexy Thing 63) — he's Richards' second and Rowland's third. GetOn SA splits three ways behind them.
Sandown R1 · 3YO 1500m
🔒 LOCK#3 CIGNETTI$2.45
Richards WIN BETWintelligence 4/10OZR #1MarshallBarkerHutchisonSimon
WHYTwo slick trials and a dominant front-running maiden win at Sale. Lead is his to control in a small field.
Brad has #4 LEPOLO on top and Best Bets rate Lepolo 86 to Cignetti's 76. Wintelligence call Lepolo "the most talented galloper here" but "not bred to love a wet track." On a Soft 7 that's the reason to stay with Cignetti — at a smaller stake than seven sources would normally earn.
Sandown R4 · BM74 1300m
🔒 LOCK#3 CRUISERWEIGHT$3.50
15 SAVOYARD SCR
Brad DavidsonRichardsMarshallBarkerOZR #2
WHY"Shuffled back and zoomed over them two-back in a terrific win" — Gator. All three racebook tipsters plus Brad.
Wintelligence's revised top pick is #4 FUNDAMENTAL NATURE $2.80, it's Gator's #1, and Best Bets rate it 88 to Cruiserweight's 84. Gator on Cruiserweight: "ridden upside down latest, now six weeks off." Savoyard was the one everyone wanted — his scratching removed Zerafa's Crack, Hutch's and Richo's pick, and two Last Man Standing legs. Simon's Back is #2 Thinxzo $26, who "never runs poorly and handles any track."
Randwick R1 · Midway 1400m
🔒 LOCK#1 FELIX MAJESTIC$4.00
10 CALTSAR SCR
Brad WIN (with Vexxy)Casey EACH-WAYOZR #1Best Bets rating 67 (top)
WHY"Last two have been very good setting fearsome speeds, only collared last 50m latest. Easier here. Needs a win!" Drops into his easiest race for some time.
Wintelligence moved to #16 VEXXY $10 after Caltsar's scratching — she's also Marshall's top pick and the second half of Brad's suggested bet. Low confidence race (3/10).
⭐ Premium plays 2 sources, or one with conviction
PREMEF R6 #7 PRECISE STAR $2.35
Rebecca Hill's Best Bet and Wintelligence's 7/10 key play — both Queensland sources. Chasing four straight wins with the 3kg claim and the inside draw.
PREMEF R7 #1 FUKUBANA $3.80
Same two sources. Eye-catcher resuming over 1110m, excels second-up, 1400m ideal.
PREMEF R8 #6 BRINDAVAN $2.70
Wintelligence Best Bet 7/10 — one source only, but their strongest Queensland call. Beat Ser Joh first-up and should improve more second-up than a fourth-up rival.
PREMEF R4 #8 SIESTA $5.50
Wizard of Odds' Each Way. Won at track and distance and on the soft, 67% place strike, Youngberry claims 3kg. Against Wintelligence's Rhetoric and Hill's Best Value in the same race — three sources, three different horses.
PREMRAN R3 #5 TEQUILA BABY $21
Ozracingform's Best Roughie of the day and Casey's win-and-place bet. "Wide/good latest at 1100m when back on drier. That looks the key." Two sources at $21 is the overlay of the day.
PREMRAN R5 #14 OFF THE PRESS $11
Brad's Value (rates $8) and Marshall's top pick. "The safer option among those with race fitness." Casey and Gator prefer Decorum resuming as a gelding.
PREMMORPH R2 #2 DEEPFLOAT DIVA $4.50
Tim Yeatman's Best Bet, Crack and Trixie leg; Richards' top pick. Rowland's win bet Light The Night is Sacked by Kelton. Deepfloat Diva goes to top of the HEAVY column.
PREMMORPH R7 #10 FAST TEMPO $4.80
Kelton's Best Bet and Terry's Crack, Team Multi top-3 leg — but he's not in either racebook tipster's top four and not in the ratings top four. Richards and Simon back #9 His Finest Hour; Rowland's Nicish is the top rating (72) after two scratchings. Simon Sacks El Tercero. Big Sue $12 is the panel's Back.
⚠️ SACKEDSAN R6 #2 CLOSER TO FREE $2.30
Nevett's Best Bet and Wintelligence's "hardest to beat" — but Zerafa and Simon both Sack him, and a Sack is a hard no. Rated 67. Pass, and take Blind Raise.
⚠️ SACKEDSAN R5 #4 PRETTY BABY $3.50
Three sources and rated 86 — but Richo Sacks her. "Barrier manners and tendency to blow the start are the obvious knocks." Capped here.
💎 Roughies 0.5–1 unit, each-way
$15SAN R8 #3 SKYBIRD
Brad's value "if rain arrives" — and 8mm arrived overnight. Zerafa $30 and Richo $30 on her in the Moir. No luck in this race last year. On top of Brad's card ahead of Natural Fling.
$5–7SAN R10 #15 SOMEWHERE
Four sources on top, two more as Value — as many as the $2.05 favourite. "Drier is ok" (Gator). The best-supported price on the card.
$14SAN R5 #2 RUBI'S CHOICE
Gator's #2 and Best Bets' joint-top rating (86). "Pace/ridden and solid second in trial. 1.3L off Blue Diamond winner Streisand and Slipper fave Chayan before the spell. $14 looks big!"
$14 / $4.40SAN R4 #12 IVAN'S HERO
Wintelligence's Value in the race Savoyard vacated. "Top two in seven of 14 anti-clockwise, trialled well, maps to trail the leaders." Racebook has him on the pace.
$26SAN R4 #2 THINXZO
Simon's Back and Value at $26. Marshall's #4, Barker's #2, Gator #5: "solid in a deep race latest, never runs poorly, handles any track."
$26RAN R5 #11 BURJ · SAN R5 #9 ALMOST AN ANGEL
Lizzie Jelfs' and Matt Nevett's Value picks respectively. One source each, no form support elsewhere — GetOn graphic only. Smallest stakes or none.
🚫 Sack calls Hard no, regardless of support
| Race | Horse | Sacked by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| San R6 | #2 Closer To Free | Zerafa, Simon | Live — $2.30 favourite, Nevett's Best Bet |
| San R5 | #4 Pretty Baby | Richo | Live — 3 sources, rated 86 |
| San R2 | #3 Jenni Gone Bonkers | Hutchison | Live — Gator's #1 |
| Morph R2 | #3 Light The Night | Kelton | Live — Rowland's win bet, rated 79 (top) |
| Morph R7 | #8 El Tercero | Simon | Live — Rowland's #2 |
| Morph R6 | #11 Divergent | Terry, Tim | SCRATCHED Called it (was Kelton's pick) |
Brad Davidson's "Taking Them On" list is empty again — "nothing I'm taking on at this stage." His doubts this week are inside the write-ups instead: Thebudgiesmugla "too short", Tempted "no appeal odds-on", Idle Flyer "well enough found."
📊 Full consensus summary
| Race | Horse | Tier | Count | Brad | OZR | Wint | Panel / Racebook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San R7 | #2 Evaporate | MEGA | 11/16 | #1 | BOD | 7/10 key | Richards BB, Marshall, Barker, BZ, Hutch Crack, Richo, Simon Crack, Hayes BB |
| San R3 | #8 Tres Magnifique | MEGA | 9/16 | #1 | #1 parlay | 6/10 | Richards, Marshall, Barker, Hutch NB, Richo, Simon · rated 82 |
| San R9 | #6 Persian Spirit | MEGA | 8/16 | #1 | #3 | 5/10 | Asgari BB, Richards win, BZ, Hutch, Richo, Simon |
| San R6 | #3 Blind Raise | MEGA | 8/16 | Best Value | #1 | 5/10 | Kneebone BB, Richards win, Barker, BZ, Simon |
| Ran R10 | #8 Starzintheireyes | MEGA | 6/11 | Win | #1 | 7/10 key | Casey win, Marshall, BZ GOS |
| Ran R4 | #1 Thebudgiesmugla | MEGA | 6/11 | #2 | #1 | 7/10 key | Wizard NB, Casey win, Marshall, Jelfs BB · rated 89 |
| Ran R8 | #4 Tempted | MEGA | 5/11 | #1 | #1 | 6/10 | Casey win, Richo Crack · rated 95 · $1.80 |
| Ran R9 | #2 Lindermann | LOCK | 4/11 | BEST | #1 | 7/10 key | Casey win · Marshall #2 |
| Ran R7 | #7 Idle Flyer | LOCK | 4/11 | #2 | BOD | BB 7/10 | Casey win, Marshall |
| San R5 | #10 Portinari | LOCK | 5/16 | #1 | #1 | Value | Strehlau BB, Richards win, Richo |
| San R8 | #13 Natural Fling | LOCK | 5/16 | #2 | #1 | threat | Marshall, Hutch $75, Richo $60, Simon $80 |
| San R10 | #5 Changing Colours | LOCK | 4/16 | #1 | #3 | BB 8/10 | Richards, Barker · rated 72 |
| San R10 | #15 Somewhere | LOCK | 4/16 | #2 | #2 (eff. #1) | Value | Marshall, Hutch, Richo, Strehlau Value |
| San R2 | #6 Blue Willow | LOCK | 4/16 | #1 | #3 wet ✓ | – | Richards EW, Marshall, Hutch |
| Ran R6 | #2 Pembrey | LOCK | 3/11 | NEXT BEST | #1 | threat | Camilleri BB · rated 92 |
| Ran R2 | #4 Mrs Goldberg | LOCK | 3/11 | #1 | #1 | 4/10 | rated 94 |
| San R1 | #3 Cignetti | LOCK | 7/16 | #2 | #1 | 4/10 | Richards win, Marshall, Barker, Hutch, Simon |
| San R4 | #3 Cruiserweight | LOCK | 4/16 | #1 | #2 | – | Richards, Marshall, Barker |
| Ran R1 | #1 Felix Majestic | LOCK | 3/11 | Win | #1 | – | Casey EW |
| Morph R3 | #7 Giggenbach | LOCK | 3/6 | – | – | – | Rowland win, Richards, Simon Crack |
| Morph R9 | #10 You Sexy Thing | LOCK | 3/6 | – | – | – | Rowland win, Richards, Simon |
| EF R6 | #7 Precise Star | PREM | 2/3 | – | – | 7/10 key | Hill BB |
| EF R7 | #1 Fukubana | PREM | 2/3 | – | – | 7/10 key | Hill NB |
| EF R8 | #6 Brindavan | PREM | 1/3 | – | – | BB 7/10 | – |
| Ran R3 | #5 Tequila Baby | PREM | 2/11 | – | Roughie $21 | Longshot | Casey W&P |
| Ran R5 | #14 Off The Press | PREM | 2/11 | Value $8 | – | Longshot | Marshall |
| Morph R2 | #2 Deepfloat Diva | PREM | 2/6 | – | – | – | Tim BB/Crack, Richards |
| Morph R7 | #10 Fast Tempo | PREM | 2/6 | – | – | – | Kelton BB, Terry Crack — not in racebook |
🏁 SANDOWN HILLSIDESOFT 7Rail true · 8mm overnight, 1–5mm more forecast
Wintelligence (raceday): "The hopes of the rain missing have been destroyed... this track could get messy now. We did expect the track could race as a genuine heavy track, and our form was done accordingly." Every Friday price on this page was set on a Good 4.
Ozracingform: all Sandown ratings are for a SOFT track. Rail back to True. On Wednesday with a 12m rail the last two winners were well off the inside; at 5m the inside rail held up with on-pace runners advantaged. "What a time to be alive!"
Best Bets: Paul Richards' SOFT column is used as his top pick. Where his HEAVY column differs it's flagged below and on the Wet Trackers tab. Sources at Sandown: 16.
R13YO Hcp · 1500mLOCK2 HYDROBOMB SCR
#3 CIGNETTI$2.45
Richards WINWintelligence 4/10OZR #1MarshallBarkerHutchSimon
WHY7 of 16. Front-running maiden winner at Sale off two slick trials; the lead is his in a five-horse field. Form around Blind Raise first prep.
#4 LEPOLO $3.10 — Brad's top pick, Best Bets' top rating (86 v 76), Wintelligence's "hardest to beat, the best horse in the race" — but "isn't bred to love a wet track." #5 Utopic Future rated 84. Gator: Hydrobomb (scr) would have been the one drier.
R2BM74 Mares · 1600mLOCKWET
#6 BLUE WILLOW$5.50
Richards EW · top on HEAVYBradMarshallHutchOZR #3 "wetter the better"Barker #2
WHY4 of 16 and the only runner here with a heavy-track win to her name. No luck last week.
Four-way split. #2 Celestial Zara $3.90 (Wintelligence, Simon, rated 88, two from two this prep). #4 Illyivy (Zerafa, Barker, Wintelligence Value $7). #3 Jenni Gone Bonkers is Gator's #1 — and Hutchison's Sack. Longshot: #7 Russian Duchess $12.
R3BM88 · 1000mMEGA
#8 TRES MAGNIFIQUE$2.90
Hutch NEXT BESTRichards WINOZR parlayWintelligence 6/10BradMarshallBarkerRichoSimon
WHY9 of 16. Unbeaten at 1000m, three from three last prep, two trial wins by 16 lengths combined. Rated 82, top.
#4 Behaviour $5.00 (Wintelligence Value, Brad #2) — the line-chaser in a speed-heavy race from gate 1. #6 Mainmankash rated 80, moves into Richards' top three on Heavy. Richards also has #3 Thanks Gorgeous each-way. Longshot #9 Final Moment $14.
R4BM74 · 1300mLOCK15 SAVOYARD SCR + 5 others
#3 CRUISERWEIGHT$3.50
BradRichardsMarshallBarkerOZR #2
WHY4 of 16. "Zoomed over them two-back in a terrific win." Richards' bet: Cruiserweight, and Fundamental Nature if $4+.
#4 FUNDAMENTAL NATURE $2.80 — Wintelligence's revised top pick (7/10), Gator's #1, rated 88 (top). "Good return win over handy Educated, last 600m and overall time good." Savoyard's scratching took out Zerafa's Crack, Hutch and Richo's pick, and two all-ups. Value: #12 Ivan's Hero $14 (Wintelligence), #2 Thinxzo $26 (Simon's Back). #11 Queen Christine "keeps winning on wet tracks" but was no match for Cruiserweight in June.
R5LR Atlantic Jewel · 3YO Fillies · 1300mLOCK
#10 PORTINARI$5.00
Strehlau BEST BETRichards WIN (Soft + Heavy)BradOZR #1RichoWintelligence Value
WHY5 of 16. Ran home well vs the pattern behind Natural Fling from gate 13; better draw, blinkers on, 1300m ideal.
#4 Pretty Baby $3.50 — Wintelligence, Simon, Kelton's travel tip, rated 86 — and Richo's Sack. #2 Rubi's Choice $14 — Gator's #2, also rated 86, "looks big." Marshall is on #1 Grinzinger Heart, Barker's Value is #8 Profligate, Hutch has #6 Ghana's Akan, Nevett's Value is #9 Almost An Angel $26.
R6LR McKenzie · 3YO C&G · 1300mMEGA
#3 BLIND RAISE$3.50
Brad BEST VALUE $3.80Kneebone BEST BETRichards WINWintelligence 5/10OZR #1BarkerZerafaSimon
WHY8 of 16. Two from two, both arrogant, forgive the Sires', trial "sensational."
#2 Closer To Free $2.30 — Sacked by Zerafa AND Simon. Nevett's Best Bet, Wintelligence's threat, rated 67. #5 Wolf Gap — top rating 80, Richo's pick, beat American Eagle in a trial. Richo and Simon both have #7 Put To The Sword as a second string ($12, Wintelligence Longshot). Marshall's outlier is #9 Extreme Reign.
R7G3 So You Think · SWP · 1500mMEGA4, 8, 11 SCR
#2 EVAPORATE$2.20
OZR BOD MelbWintelligence 7/10 keyBest Bets BET OF DAYHutch CRACK $50Simon CRACKHayes BESTBradMarshallBarkerZerafaRicho
WHY11 of 16. Second-up at his pet trip, top rater under SWP, draws to lead or sit outside. "This is his race to lose."
#10 Zambardo $5.50 — Wintelligence Value, Gator #3, beat Evaporate in the All-Star Mile last prep, trialling super. #7 Pinstriped — Gator #2, all three racebook tipsters' #2, "right with Evaporate in the Lawrence." Richards keeps #12 Ten Commandments in his top two on wet. Ambassadorial (Wintelligence longshot) scratched.
R8G1 Moir Stakes · WFA · 1000mLOCK
#13 NATURAL FLING$3.10
Simon $80Hutch $75Richo $60OZR #1MarshallBrad #2Wintelligence threat
WHY5 of 16 and $215 of the panel's $400. 50kg, likely leader in a race the leader wins half the time.
Open Group 1. #3 Skybird $15 (Brad's value on rain, BZ $30, Richo $30). #1 Giga Kick (Richards EW, BZ $70). #11 Extragalactic $11 (Wintelligence top pick 5/10, Hutch $25, Simon $20). #4 Generosity $17 Gator's "value danger." #5 Ole Dancer rated 80 — top — tipped by nobody. Full breakdown on the Moir tab.
R9G3 Chautauqua · 1300mMEGA1, 4, 7 RECON, 9 SCR
#6 PERSIAN SPIRIT$3.30
Asgari BEST BETRichards WINWintelligence 5/10 · best wet trackerBradZerafaHutchRichoSimonOZR #3
WHY8 of 16. Best drawn, sharpest at 1300m, best wet tracker in the race.
#3 Warnie — Marshall, Barker and Gator (now Recon's gone). "Fabulous fresh flying home on a day not many did." #11 Tennessee Bound $3.10 Wintelligence Value, rated 72, but Gator: "cannot possibly come in as fave." Longshot #5 Amenable $13. Kelton's travel tip #8 Klabel.
R10BM84 · 1600mLOCK13 MR VERSE + 6 others SCR
#5 CHANGING COLOURS$2.05 / #15 SOMEWHERE$5–7
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10 · singleBradRichardsBarkerOZR #3Somewhere: Hutch · Richo · Marshall · OZR #2 · Strehlau Value · Wint Value
WHYA 4–4 split. Changing Colours is the form horse (two smart wins, 8/10, rated 72 top); Somewhere is the price (four on top, two Values, "drier is ok"). Mr Verse's scratching removed Gator's Best Each-Way, his parlay leg and Simon's pick, and Richards' suggested bet is void.
Emergencies 17–19 are in. Zerafa's quaddie leg is 4, 5, 15, 19. #4 Stay Silent off three straight wins is Brad's #3 — "on-side, pattern?"
🌿 RANDWICKGOOD 4Rail out 3m · fine, 27°C · strong N/NW winds
Wintelligence: all form done for a good track. "Strong Northerly / North Westerly winds forecast throughout the meeting which is a headwind around the bends. Finding cover could prove essential." Confidence builds through the back half of the card.
Ozracingform: ratings for GOOD. Last 3m rail was 6 June — "all 10 winners were in the first four at the 600m." Best Bets: Casey's HEAVY column reads "None Recommended" all day and his SOFT equals his GOOD — nothing to find in the wet at Randwick, as expected. Sources: 11 (Wizard of Odds arrived late with Thebudgiesmugla as his Next Best).
R1Midway BM72 · 1400mLOCK10 CALTSAR + 6 others SCR
#1 FELIX MAJESTIC$4.00
Brad WIN (+ Vexxy)Casey EWOZR #1rated 67 top
WHY3 of 11. Fearsome speed last two, collared last 50m latest, easiest race in a while.
#16 Vexxy $10 — Wintelligence's post-scratching top pick, Marshall's top, Brad's each-way half. #3 Dusty Bay $3.00 gets J-Mac and "an ideal race shape" (Brad #2, Wintelligence Value). Gator's value danger #15 Call Me Sassy $12.
R2Highway C3 · 1200mLOCK
#4 MRS GOLDBERG$5.00
rated 94BradOZR #1Wintelligence 4/10Casey #3Marshall #3
WHYThe three form sources agree and the ratings have her clear. Rawiller chose her over Wayburn.
Casey: #12 Ready To Rush each-way plus a box quinella 4-12-20. Marshall: #17 Andrea. #11 Lord Remlap unbeaten in three, rated 86. #7 Lady Olenna $8.50 Wintelligence Value, Gator #2.
R3BM78 Mares · 1100mPREM4, 10, 15, 17 SCR
#5 TEQUILA BABY$21
OZR BEST ROUGHIECasey WIN & PLACEWintelligence Longshot
WHYTwo independent sources on a $21 shot. "Wide/good latest at 1100m when back on drier. That looks the key."
Five different horses on top. #9 Scenic Point $7 — Brad's top (each-way with #13 Agatha), Wintelligence Value, rated 84 (top) — first start for Joe Pride after being heavily backed then scratched at the gates. #1 Kimberley Secrets Wintelligence top pick (4/10). Marshall: #6 Scillato. Gator #2 Ernaux.
R4LR Drinkwise Cup · 2400mMEGA
#1 THEBUDGIESMUGLA$2.30
Wintelligence 7/10 keyCasey WINJelfs BEST BETOZR #1Marshallrated 89
WHY6 of 11. Five from five at 2400m. Wizard of Odds' Next Best at $2.35 — "5 wins from 7 in the soft."
#2 So You Are — Brad's top pick ("too short" on the favourite, firmer ground), Camilleri's Next Best. Beat him last start. #5 Fernao $6 Wintelligence Value, meets him 6kg better. #7 Amplify rated 74.
R5BM78 · 1200mPREM6, 7, 8, 19, 21 SCR
#14 OFF THE PRESS$11
Brad VALUE (rates $8)MarshallWintelligence Longshot
WHYWide-open race of resuming horses; he's the fit one with the low draw stepping to 1200m.
#4 Decorum — Casey's win bet, Gator #1, rated 78 — resumes as a gelding off excellent trials. #3 Alabama State $12 Wintelligence top pick (4/10). #9 Unleeshing $8 Wintelligence Value. #11 Burj $26 Jelfs' Value. #17 Night Agent gets J-Mac from a wide gate.
R6G2 Furious · 3YO Fillies · 1200mLOCK
#2 PEMBREY$2.20
Brad NEXT BEST $2.10Camilleri BEST BETOZR #1rated 92Casey #2
WHYSilver Shadow in 1:08.7 first-up over this track and trip. Leads again.
#3 Chilly Girl $3.40 — Wintelligence 6/10, Casey's win bet, rated 90, unbeaten. Marshall's #9 Oh Yes She Did $23 (Wintelligence Longshot). #6 Bangkok Hottie ran home super to Pembrey last time.
R7G2 Tramway · SWP · 1400mLOCK6 FANGIRL SCR (runs R9)
#7 IDLE FLYER$2.60
OZR BOD SydWintelligence BEST BET 7/10Casey WINMarshallBrad #2
WHY4 of 11. Four from four second-up.
#1 Headley Grange — Brad's top and value, Simon's all-up place leg, Marshall #2, rated 75. #5 Private Eye $4 Wintelligence threat, Gator #3 — "he's still got it." #3 Attica is the top rating (76).
R8G2 Concorde · SWP · 1000mMEGA$1.80
#4 TEMPTED$1.80
Richo CRACK + all-up placeCasey WINBradOZR #1Wintelligence 6/10rated 95
WHY5 of 11. Best sprinter in the country resuming.
Brad: "no appeal odds-on over 1000m." #1 Headwall $4.40 — Marshall's top, Wintelligence Value, rated 85, won this last year, first run in 12 months. #2 Marhoona $10 longshot, Gator #3. #5 Roselyn's Star every bit as good on drier.
R9G2 Chelmsford · WFA · 1600mLOCK8 ATTICA SCR (runs R7)
#2 LINDERMANN$2.60
Brad BEST BET $2.80 · MultiWintelligence 7/10 keyCasey WINOZR #1Marshall #2
WHYThe three heavyweights and Casey. Gets the lead, gets a dry track, won this race last year.
#1 Ceolwulf (Brad #2, Gator #2, rated 67 top) "the main danger." #9 Fangirl $3.70 Marshall's top pick, Wintelligence threat. Best Bets don't rate Lindermann top four.
R10BM94 · 1600mMEGA1, 4 SCR
#8 STARZINTHEIREYES$3.40
Brad WINWintelligence 7/10 keyCasey WINZerafa GET OUTOZR #1Marshall
WHY6 of 11 — the Randwick banker by count.
Ratings disagree: #6 Franz Josef 80, #9 The Mona Lisa 71 ("airborne", proven miler, drops 4kg), #5 Sneaky Sunrise 64 (Simon's Get Out), Starz 60. #13 Watson $4.20 Wintelligence Value, Brad #2, gate 1. Richo's Get Out is #3 Fortune $27.
🌊 MORPHETTVILLE PARKSSOFT 6Rail true · 9 races
The SA racebook arrived this week — Julie Rowland with SOFT / GOOD / HEAVY columns, Paul Richards as second tipster, and Best Bets ratings. Rowland's SOFT column is her top pick at Soft 6; her HEAVY column is on the Wet Trackers tab. Plus GetOn SA (Kelton, Terry, Tim, Simon). Six sources — still the thinnest state, but a real form source for the first time.
Scratchings that matter: Heart Of The Med (R4, rated 88 — top of the race), Rematch and Princeofnottingham (R7, the two top ratings), Divergent (R6 — Kelton's pick and a double Sack), Ironbar (R6, Tim's pick), Hot Strut (R8, Terry's pick).
R1Maiden · 1250mPREM
#6 COSMIC SHOWER / #8 OLIVIA MARIE
Rowland (Soft)SimonOlivia Marie: Kelton NEXT BEST · Richards · rated 55 top
WHY2–2 split. Rowland's bet is a quinella 6-9-12. On Heavy she goes #9 Polar Eyes first. Kelton on Olivia Marie: "solid run first-up before getting too far back and making good ground."
R2BM74 · 1000mPREM
#2 DEEPFLOAT DIVA$4.50
Tim BEST BET · CRACK · Trixie top 3 $1.70RichardsRowland #2 · top on HEAVY
WHYRowland's win bet is #3 Light The Night (rated 79, top) — but Kelton Sacks him, which caps him. Rowland's quinella 2-3-5. Terry's outlier: #6 Vexatious Dancer.
R3BM74 · 1950mLOCK
#7 GIGGENBACH
Rowland WINSimon CRACK · Team MultiRichards
WHY3 of 6. Rowland: win 7, running double 2 & 7 into R4.
#6 Cradle Of Jazz — Kelton's pick and the top rating (80 v 68). Gets back in the field. On Heavy Rowland switches to #4 Jandami.
R4RB66 · 1000mPREM9 HEART OF THE MED (88) SCR
#4 NICEREINE
Rowland BETRichardsrated 69 — now top after scratching
WHYBoth racebook tipsters, on all three conditions, and the top rating once Heart Of The Med came out. Eight runners left. GetOn SA panel passed on this race entirely.
R5RB64 · 2250mPREM
#3 NOTHINGELSEMATTERS
Rowland WINSimontop on HEAVY too
WHYFive different horses on top from six sources. Rowland's box trifecta 3-6-7-9-12.
#10 The True Believer $19 — Terry's Back, Value, Trixie and Team Multi leg (top 7 at $2.00), and in Rowland's HEAVY column. #12 Princess Painton Richards' pick. #1 Celtic Park rated 70 top. Kelton #13 Geetee Forty, Tim #7 Rikki Rikkardo.
R6RB62 · 1400mPREM5 IRONBAR, 11 DIVERGENT, 12 SCR
#3 THERMODYNAMIC / #10 TERRITORIAN
Rowland WIN (Soft)RichardsTerritorian: Terry · Simon · top on HEAVY
WHY2–2. Rowland's quaddie leg 1, 3, 9, 10. On Heavy she drops Thermodynamic entirely and goes Territorian / Hysterical Lady. Kelton's Divergent (double-Sacked) and Tim's Ironbar both scratched. #9 Hysterical Lady rated 59 top.
R7BM74 · 1550mPREM1 REMATCH (73), 3 (68) SCR
#10 FAST TEMPO$4.80
Kelton BEST BET · Team MultiTerry CRACK · Trixie top 3 $2.10Racebook: not top 4, not rated top 4
WHYKelton: "had excuses two starts ago before winning easily last time. Has further upside." The tipster-vs-ratings clash of the day in SA.
Four horses with two sources. #9 His Finest Hour Richards' top, Simon's Back. #2 Nicish Rowland ("sticking with 2"), rated 72 — top after two scratchings. #6 Big Sue $12 Tim's Back and Trixie (top 6 $1.95), Kelton's and Yeatman's Value. #8 El Tercero is Rowland's #2 and Simon's Sack.
R8BM70 · 1300mPREM9 HOT STRUT SCR
#12 FLOREY / #3 CHAKADO
Rowland WINRichardsChakado: Kelton BEST VALUE · Tim
WHY2–2. Kelton on Chakado: "generally runs well fresh, handy claim for Weatherley, maps to get every chance." #6 Synchro rated 78 — top — is in both racebook top fours and nobody's top. Rowland's HEAVY column is completely different: Chipson / Flying Brant / Mansiere. Simon: #7 Eugenius.
R9BM64 · 1250mLOCK
#10 YOU SEXY THING
Rowland WINRichardsSimon
WHY3 of 6. Rowland's quaddie 6, 10, 13.
#6 Obucci rated 80 (You Sexy Thing 63) — Richards' #2. GetOn SA splits: Kelton #13 Sensational Secret (top on HEAVY), Terry #12 Uptown Monk (Trixie top 3 $3.00), Tim #4 Common Interest (Trixie top 6 $1.67).
☀️ EAGLE FARMSOFT 5Rail out 0.5m · fine
Three sources — Wintelligence, Rebecca Hill (Racing.com) and Wizard of Odds' Each Way (Siesta, R4). No QLD racebook, no Gator, no Brad. Wintelligence: "rail coming in 4.5m from last week, expect winners to come from everywhere. A group of open races." Their confidence is in the back half: R6, R7, R8 are all 7/10 key plays.
Treat Eagle Farm as Premium at best — two people agreeing is the ceiling here. Quaddie: Wintelligence's revised legs on the Quaddies tab (83% for $100).
| Race | Wintelligence top | Conf | Value | Longshot | Rebecca Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 · 1000m | 11 Get Ready Lass $7.00 | 6/10 | 3 Dr Farthing $7 | 13 Breezin' $41 | – |
| R2 · 1000m | 4 Moulin Miss $4.00 | 4/10 | 1 Fleetwood $4.40 | 3 Termagant $11 | – |
| R3 · 2400m | 12 Bon Riviere $5.00 | 5/10 | 2 Chillaxing $6 3 SCR | 11 Artful Girl $10 | – |
| R4 · 1200m | 4 Rhetoric $7.00 | 5/10 | 7 Thats Archies Girl $5 | 1 Prince Charge $23 | 4 Rhetoric Best Value · Wizard EW: 8 Siesta $5.50 |
| R5 · 1800m | 6 Think Like Paddy $6.00 | 5/10 | 1 Capital Asset $7.50 | – | – |
| R6 · 1500m | 7 Precise Star $2.35 · key | 7/10 | 1 Detrimental $10 | – | 7 Precise Star BEST BET |
| R7 · 1400m | 1 Fukubana $3.80 · key | 7/10 | 7 Bold Comic $8 | – | 1 Fukubana Next Best |
| R8 · 1400m | 6 Brindavan $2.70 · BEST BET | 7/10 | threat: 12 Ser Joh $2.50 | – | – |
| R9 · 1200m | 4 Fire Bomber $5.50 | 6/10 | threat: 1 Manpower $3.20 | 9 Swift Duke $19 | – |
| R10 · 1200m | 3 Hell $4.60 | 5/10 | 8 She's Exotic $9.50 | 13 Yoshinobu $14 | – |
PREMR6 #7 PRECISE STAR $2.35Both sources. "Looking to make it four straight wins. With the 3kg claim and inside draw he'll be hard to beat."
PREMR7 #1 FUKUBANA $3.80Both sources. "Eye-catcher resuming over 1110m. Excels second-up and the rise to 1400m looks ideal."
PREMR8 #6 BRINDAVAN $2.70Wintelligence Best Bet. Beat Ser Joh first-up; Ser Joh leads, Brindavan stalks. Brindavan was scratched from R7 to run here.
PREMR4 #4 RHETORIC $7.00Wintelligence top + Hill's Best Value. "Hasn't been far away in recent runs and finds this easier."
EWR4 #8 SIESTA $5.50Wizard of Odds' Each Way. Won at track and distance and on the soft, 67% place strike, 3kg claim. His 2026 Best Bets run at 28: 10-5-1 (36% win, 57% place) and last week's Howdoyouzou got up at $2.60.
The three sources carrying the most weight, given their own tab. Brad Davidson is weighted 1.6×, Ozracingform and Wintelligence 1.35×. This is their raw card, not our consensus read. Week-one reminder: all three lost money last Saturday the same way — good strike rates at short prices. Read the rated price against the market before you bet.
📋 Davo's card Brad Davidson · weight 1.6×
🎲 MULTI OF THE DAY
Toowoomba R6 #1 Propaganda to win → Randwick R9 #2 Lindermann to win → Hawkesbury R4 #6 Harrybegood to win (rated $2.00, med-low).
Two provincial legs around his Best Bet. Harrybegood: "nice return first-up and he won with ease, the step out in trip looks ideal."
Two provincial legs around his Best Bet. Harrybegood: "nice return first-up and he won with ease, the step out in trip looks ideal."
🎯 His declared bets, by his own confidence
| Conf | Race | Selection | He rates | Market | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MED-LOW | Ran R9 | #2 Lindermann | $2.80 | $2.60 | Best Bet · win |
| MED-LOW | Ran R6 | #2 Pembrey | $2.10 | $2.20 | Next Best · win |
| MED-LOW | San R6 | #3 Blind Raise | $3.80 | $3.50 | Best Value (Sandown) · win |
| MED-LOW | Ran R2 | #4 Mrs Goldberg | – | $5.00 | "On top but well found" |
| MED-LOW | Ran R8 | #4 Tempted | – | $1.80 | "Hardest to beat, no appeal odds-on" |
| MED-LOW | Ran R10 | #8 Starzintheireyes | – | $3.40 | Win |
| LOW | Ran R5 | #14 Off The Press | $8.00 | $11 | Value · win |
| LOW | Ran R7 | #1 Headley Grange | – | – | "The value" over Idle Flyer |
| LOW | Ran R1 | #1 Felix Majestic + #16 Vexxy | – | $4 / $10 | Both to win |
| LOW | Ran R3 | #9 Scenic Point + #13 Agatha | – | $7 / – | Both each-way |
| LOW | Ran R4 | #1 Thebudgiesmugla | – | $2.30 | "Too short but not sure who beats him" |
| LOW | San R8 | #3 Skybird | – | $15 | "The value if rain arrives" |
Nothing above med-low this week. Where he rates a horse shorter than the market it's his overlay: Lindermann ($2.80 v $2.60) isn't one, Off The Press ($8 v $11) and Blind Raise ($3.80 v $3.50) are marginal. His most useful call is the conditional one — Skybird only became a bet when it rained, and it rained.
🗒️ Full ranked selections
| Race | Sandown | Randwick |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 4-3-1-5 | 1-3-16-4 |
| R2 | 6-4-3-2 | 4-9-2-11 |
| R3 | 8-4-6-3 | 9-13-3-1 |
| R4 | 3-4-11-2 15 scr | 2-1-5-7 |
| R5 | 10-4-6-12 | 14-4-17-3 |
| R6 | 3-2-5-1 | 2-3-6-1 |
| R7 | 2-7-10-9 | 1-7-5-3 |
| R8 | 3-13-1-11 | 4-1-5-8 |
| R9 | 6-3-11-2 | 2-1-9-7 |
| R10 | 5-15-4-18 | 8-13-9-2 |
Bold = a declared bet. Sandown got the numbers only this week — one write-up (the Moir) and one bet (Blind Raise). Randwick got the full treatment.
🚫 TAKING THEM ON
Empty again: "Nothing I'm taking on at this stage." Second week running.
🐊 Gator's Top 5 Ozracingform · weight 1.35×
ℹ️ HEADLINE CALLS
Bet of the Day (Melb) San R7 Evaporate · Bet of the Day (Syd) Ran R7 Idle Flyer · Best Value San R9 Recon SCR · Best Each-Way San R10 Mr Verse SCR · Best Roughie Ran R3 Tequila Baby $21. Parlay 2–3 Tres Magnifique / Evaporate / Mr Verse — two of three legs scratched or gone; last week's parlay went Jenni Multabella 2nd, Jimmysstar "yawn", Yellow Jersey unplaced. Balance $2,717.80.
🏁 Sandown (ratings for SOFT)
| Race | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 3 Cignetti | 1 Ko Phangan | 5 Utopic Future | 4 Lepolo | |
| R2 | 3 Jenni Gone Bonkers (Hutch Sack) | 4 Illyivy | 6 Blue Willow wet ✓ | 2 Celestial Zara | 5 Ocean Bay |
| R3 | 8 Tres Magnifique | 1 Beast Mode | 3 Thanks Gorgeous | 4 Behaviour | 7 Saluted |
| R4 | 4 Fundamental Nature | 3 Cruiserweight | 11 Queen Christine wet ✓ | 2 Thinxzo · 10 Zourain | |
| R5 | 10 Portinari | 2 Rubi's Choice $14 | 12 Saintly Dancer | 6 Ghana's Akan | 11 La Barrita · 4 Pretty Baby · 1 Grinzinger Heart |
| R6 | 3 Blind Raise | 2 Closer To Free | 5 Wolf Gap | 8 Shooting Brake wet ✓ | 7 Put To The Sword |
| R7 | 2 Evaporate BOD | 7 Pinstriped | 10 Zambardo | 9 Freedom Rally | 6 Kings Valley |
| R8 | 13 Natural Fling | 4 Generosity $15 | 7 My Gladiola | 11 Extragalactic | 1 Giga Kick · 9 Cavalry Girl |
| R9 | 3 Warnie | 6 Persian Spirit | 11 Tennessee Bound · | ||
| R10 | 15 Somewhere | 5 Changing Colours | 18 Federer |
Four of his ten Sandown top-fives lost a runner to scratchings, including his #1 in R9 and R10. The effective top picks used in the consensus are Warnie and Somewhere.
🌿 Randwick (ratings for GOOD)
| Race | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1 Felix Majestic | 15 Call Me Sassy $12 | 3 Dusty Bay | 5 Barrengarry | 4 Long Legs · 16 Vexxy |
| R2 | 4 Mrs Goldberg | 7 Lady Olenna | 11 Lord Remlap | 2 Wayburn | 12 Ready To Rush · 9 Royal Exile |
| R3 | 5 Tequila Baby $21 roughie | 3 Ernaux | 13 Agatha | 2 Petticoat | 1 Kimberley Secrets |
| R4 | 1 Thebudgiesmugla | 2 So You Are | 5 Fernao | 7 Amplify | 3 Sam Hawkens |
| R5 | 4 Decorum | 10 Call Me Gorgeous | 17 Night Agent | 1 Clear Proof | 3 Alabama State · 9 Unleeshing |
| R6 | 2 Pembrey | 3 Chilly Girl | 1 Chayan | 6 Bangkok Hottie | 4 Cherry Bomshell |
| R7 | 7 Idle Flyer BOD | 3 Attica | 5 Private Eye | 1 Headley Grange | 2 Transatlantic |
| R8 | 4 Tempted | 1 Headwall | 2 Marhoona | 5 Roselyn's Star | 8 King's Secret |
| R9 | 2 Lindermann | 1 Ceolwulf | 9 Fangirl | 7 Green Spaces | 10 Piggyback |
| R10 | 8 Starzintheireyes | 7 Istolea Merc | 13 Watson | 9 The Mona Lisa | 5 Sneaky Sunrise · 3 Fortune |
🧠 Wintelligence's Top 3 Top · Value · Longshot · weight 1.35×
ℹ️ USE THE CONFIDENCE AS A STAKE MULTIPLIER
Best Bets: San R10 Changing Colours 8/10, Ran R7 Idle Flyer 7/10, EF R8 Brindavan 7/10. Key plays (*) are the quaddie anchors. Post-scratching updates from the raceday email are already applied below. Note their Sandown warning: "if conditions deteriorate, confidence decreases accordingly."
🏁 Sandown
| Race | Conf | Top pick | Value / Threat | Longshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 4/10 | 3 Cignetti $2.45 | 4 Lepolo $3.10 (threat, high) | 6 Glide $15 |
| R2 | 4/10 | 2 Celestial Zara $3.90 | 4 Illyivy $7.00 | 7 Russian Duchess $12 |
| R3 | 6/10 | 8 Tres Magnifique $2.90 | 4 Behaviour $5.00 | 9 Final Moment $14 |
| R4 | 7/10 | 4 Fundamental Nature $2.80 * was Savoyard | 12 Ivan's Hero $14 | 13 Untapped $26 |
| R5 | 6/10 | 4 Pretty Baby $3.50 | 10 Portinari $5.50 | — |
| R6 | 5/10 | 3 Blind Raise $3.50 | 2 Closer To Free $2.25 (threat) | 7 Put To The Sword $12 |
| R7 | 7/10 | 2 Evaporate $2.25 * | 10 Zambardo $5.50 | |
| R8 | 5/10 | 11 Extragalactic $11 | 13 Natural Fling $3.10 (threat) | 4 Generosity $17 |
| R9 | 5/10 | 6 Persian Spirit $3.30 | 11 Tennessee Bound $3.10 was Recon | 5 Amenable $13 |
| R10 | 8/10 | 5 Changing Colours $2.05 * BEST BET | 16 Somewhere $5.00 was Mr Verse | — |
🌿 Randwick
| Race | Conf | Top pick | Value / Threat | Longshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 3/10 | 16 Vexxy $10 was Caltsar | 3 Dusty Bay $3.00 | 8 Satness $18 |
| R2 | 4/10 | 4 Mrs Goldberg $5.00 | 7 Lady Olenna $8.50 | 14 Tropic $71 |
| R3 | 4/10 | 1 Kimberley Secrets $9.00 | 9 Scenic Point $7.00 | 5 Tequila Baby $20 |
| R4 | 7/10 | 1 Thebudgiesmugla $2.45 * | 5 Fernao $6.00 | — |
| R5 | 4/10 | 3 Alabama State $12 | 9 Unleeshing $8.00 | 14 Off The Press $11 |
| R6 | 6/10 | 3 Chilly Girl $3.40 | 2 Pembrey $2.20 (threat, high) | 9 Oh Yes She Did $23 |
| R7 | 7/10 | 7 Idle Flyer $2.60 * BEST BET | 5 Private Eye $4.00 (threat) | — |
| R8 | 6/10 | 4 Tempted $1.85 | 1 Headwall $4.40 | 2 Marhoona $10 |
| R9 | 7/10 | 2 Lindermann $2.60 * | 9 Fangirl $3.70 (threat) | — |
| R10 | 7/10 | 8 Starzintheireyes $3.40 * | 13 Watson $4.20 | 3 Fortune $27 |
Eagle Farm's full Wintelligence table is on the ☀️ Eagle Farm tab.
Live results, pulled automatically and matched against every tip we logged. Everything on this page comes from the database, not the sheet — so it keeps updating after the sheet is written. ⚙️ Poller setup
📡 POLLER STATUS
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✅ BANKED WINS
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🏁 Race by race
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🏆 Tipster scoreboard All weeks · builds week on week
Week one said: Locks (3–5 sources) returned +6.27u at 37.5% strike; Mega Locks lost 1.77u at 28.6% because the average winner paid $2.62. The three heaviest-weighted sources all lost money at short prices. Weights don't change until ~8 meetings are in, but the Staking tab now flags anything under $2.20 as a multi leg rather than a win bet. P&L is 1 unit level stakes at Betfair SP; prices land the morning after.
| Tipster | Weight | Settled | Wins | Win % | Avg win $ | P/L units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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📐 Tier scoreboard Does the consensus actually work?
| Tier | Settled | Wins | Win % | Place % | Avg win $ | P/L units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sandown is a Soft 7 with rain still falling; Morphettville Soft 6; Eagle Farm Soft 5. Randwick is Good 4 and the NSW racebook confirms there is nothing to find there — Casey's HEAVY column is "None Recommended" in all ten races. This tab is the Best Bets HEAVY column for Sandown and Morphettville, which is what found Nearco Frod on 22 August, plus every wet-form comment Gator and Wintelligence made.
🌧️ IF SANDOWN GOES HEAVY
Wintelligence did their Sandown form "for horses who will handle all conditions" and say the track "could race as a genuine heavy." Paul Richards' HEAVY column differs from his SOFT column in five races — those changes are the signal.
🏁 Sandown — Richards' HEAVY column where it differs from SOFT
| Race | SOFT (used) | HEAVY | What moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | Blue Willow · Russian Duchess · Celestial Zara · Jenni Gone Bonkers | Blue Willow · Celestial Zara · Jenni Gone Bonkers · Ocean Bay | Blue Willow stays top. Russian Duchess out, Ocean Bay in. Gator: Blue Willow "wetter the better." |
| R3 | Tres Magnifique · Thanks Gorgeous · Behaviour · Beast Mode | Tres Magnifique · Thanks Gorgeous · Mainmankash · Behaviour | Mainmankash (rated 80) into third. Gator on Saluted: "fancy better than heavy." |
| R5 | Portinari · Ghana's Akan · Pretty Baby · Leopard Shark | Portinari · Pretty Baby · Ghana's Akan · Leopard Shark | Portinari top on both. Pretty Baby up a spot. Gator: Ghana's Akan "solid both runs back on wet." |
| R6 | Blind Raise · Closer To Free · Wolf Gap · Dustee | Blind Raise · Closer To Free · Dustee · Wolf Gap | Wolf Gap (top rated) demoted on Heavy. Gator: Shooting Brake "ran well on very wet." |
| R8 | Giga Kick · My Gladiola · Generosity · Point Barrow | Giga Kick · Cavalry Girl · My Gladiola · Generosity | Cavalry Girl into second on Heavy. Four wins and two seconds from six this prep. Plus Brad's Skybird "if rain arrives." |
| R1, 4, 7, 9, 10 | No change between SOFT and HEAVY. R9 Persian Spirit is "the best wet tracker in the race" (Wintelligence); R4 Queen Christine "keeps winning and running time on wet tracks" (Gator); R10 Changing Colours "handles any track." | ||
❌ Wet queries at Sandown downgrade or avoid if it keeps raining
QUERYR1 #4 LEPOLO"Isn't exactly bred to love a wet track" — Wintelligence. Brad's top pick and the 86 rating; the reason to stay with Cignetti.
QUERYR9 #7 RECON — now scratched"Probably just doesn't want it too wet" — Wintelligence, before he was scratched. Possibly why.
QUERYR10 #15 SOMEWHEREGator: "drier is ok" — framed as a positive on dry, which reads as a mild query in the wet. Four sources still on him.
QUERYR2 #4 ILLYIVY"Keeps missing the start" — on a wet track a slow start from a low draw is a bigger problem. Zerafa and Barker's pick.
🌊 Morphettville — Rowland's HEAVY column Soft 6 today; SOFT column used
| Race | SOFT (used) | HEAVY | What moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cosmic Shower · Fartoo Frisky · Polar Eyes · Olivia Marie | Polar Eyes · Olivia Marie · Cosmic Shower · Fartoo Frisky | Polar Eyes to top, Cosmic Shower drops to third. |
| R2 | Light The Night · Deepfloat Diva · Mintulee · Vexatious Dancer | Deepfloat Diva · Light The Night · Mintulee · Bristler | Deepfloat Diva (Tim's Best Bet) takes over on Heavy. Light The Night is Kelton's Sack anyway. |
| R3 | Giggenbach · Guru Warrior · Jandami · Cradle Of Jazz | Jandami · Giggenbach · Like A Tiger · Male Model | Jandami to top; Cradle Of Jazz (80 rated) out of the four. |
| R5 | Nothingelsematters · Suit Of Wands · Princess Painton · Rikki Rikkardo | Nothingelsematters · Suit Of Wands · Eight On The Dot · The True Believer | Terry's $19 True Believer enters the frame on Heavy. |
| R6 | Thermodynamic · Hysterical Lady · Territorian · Embellisher | Territorian · Hysterical Lady | Thermodynamic gone entirely. Territorian (Terry, Simon) top. |
| R7 | Nicish · El Tercero · Maxildo · Big Sue | Nicish · El Tercero · Maxildo · Talisay | Big Sue drops out for Talisay. Fast Tempo nowhere on any condition. |
| R8 | Florey · Chipson · Chakado · Synchro | Chipson · Flying Brant · Mansiere · Jacks On Ice | Completely different race on Heavy — Florey and Chakado both out. |
| R9 | You Sexy Thing · Sensational Secret · Obucci · Speedtail | Sensational Secret · Green Summer · Wind Rush · Costless | Kelton's Sensational Secret to top; You Sexy Thing and Obucci out. |
| R4 | Nicereine top on all three conditions. | ||
At Soft 6 the SOFT column is the right one. If Adelaide gets more rain and it's downgraded before the later races, R6, R8 and R9 change completely.
🏆 G1 MOIR STAKESSandown R8 · WFA · 1000m · Soft 7 and raining
The first Group 1 of the Melbourne spring, and an open one — "very intriguing but probably not the strongest edition" (Wintelligence). No horse has more than 5 of 16 sources. The declared money from the GetOn panel and Brad's conditional value are the useful signals; the Best Bets ratings and Heavy column disagree with all of them.
💵 Where the money is GetOn Group 1 strategies · $100 each
#13 Natural Fling $3.10 — Hutch $75 · Richo $60 · Simon $80$215
#1 Giga Kick — Zerafa $70$70
#3 Skybird $15 — Zerafa $30 · Richo $30$60
#11 Extragalactic $11 — Hutch $25 · Simon $20$45
#8 Point Barrow — Richo $10$10
Over half the panel's money is on Natural Fling; nobody else gets more than $70. Note that $60 of the $400 is on a $15 shot — Skybird — which is the same horse Brad names as the value "if rain arrives."
🗳️ Who's on what
| Horse | Odds | On top | Also | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13 Natural Fling | $3.10 | Gator #1 · Marshall · Hutch · Richo · Simon | Brad #2 · Wint threat · Barker #3 | 78 |
| #1 Giga Kick | – | Richards EW · Zerafa $70 | Brad #3 · Gator #5 · Marshall #2. "Best form these days is 1200m but is the class!" | 74 |
| #3 Skybird | $15 | Brad (value on rain) | Zerafa $30 · Richo $30 · Richardson Value. "No luck in this race last year." | – |
| #11 Extragalactic | $11 | Wintelligence 5/10 | Hutch Back $25 · Simon $20 · Gator #4 · Brad #4 · Marshall #3. Unlucky G1 Goodwood second, "could announce herself here." | – |
| #4 Generosity | $17 | – | Gator #2 "value danger $15?" · Wint longshot · Richards #3 · Barker #4. Beat Marhoona fresh last prep. | – |
| #7 My Gladiola | – | Barker | Gator #3 · Richards #2. "All her fresh form is super" — gave Tentyris a scare in the Lightning. | – |
| #5 Ole Dancer | – | – | Top of the Best Bets ratings and named by no tipster. Extragalactic beat her in the latest trial. | 80 |
| #8 Point Barrow | – | – | Richo $10 · Barker #2 · Richards #4 | 76 |
| #9 Cavalry Girl | – | – | Brad #4 · Gator #6 "flying and fit, love her at 1000m" · Richards' #2 on HEAVY. 4 wins, 2 seconds from 6 this prep. | – |
🎯 THE READ
Natural Fling is the bet if the track holds as a Soft 7 — leader, 50kg, and the money says so. If it's downgraded to Heavy before 4pm the two horses that improve are Skybird (Brad, and $60 of panel money at $15) and Cavalry Girl (the racebook's Heavy upgrade). Wintelligence's outlier Extragalactic at $11 is the value each-way for a place. Nothing here is a Mega Lock; size it like a Lock.
Every quaddie as the tipster filed it, then a consensus built from the legs they share. Wintelligence's Sandown and Eagle Farm legs are the raceday revisions after scratchings. Zerafa's Sandown leg 4 loses Mr Verse (13).
🏁 Sandown quaddie Races 7–10 · rain factor
Wintelligence (revised) 216 combos · 46% for $100
R7
271012
R8
13467891113
R9
23561011
R10
5
Brad Davidson 225 combos
R7
2791012
R8
1371113
R9
3611
R10
4515
Zerafa (GetOn) 96 combos after scratching
R7
2
R8
13671113
R9
3567 scr
R10
45131519
🎯 Consensus 4 × 5 × 4 × 3 = 240 combos · $24 for 10% · $120 for 50%
R7
271012
R8
1371113
R9
35611
R10
4515
Every leg here is in at least two of the three cards. Trimmed version: 2,7,10 / 1,3,7,11,13 / 3,6,11 / 4,5,15 = 135 combos, $27 for 20%. Wintelligence single Changing Colours in the last; Zerafa singles Evaporate in the first. Singling both: 1×5×4×1 = 20 combos, $20 for 100%.
🌿 Randwick quaddie Races 7–10
Wintelligence 126 combos · 79% for $100
R7
157
R8
12457812
R9
2
R10
2357813
Brad Davidson 144 combos
R7
175
R8
415
R9
21
R10
813925763
🎯 Consensus 3 × 3 × 1 × 5 = 45 combos · $45 for 100% · $22.50 for 50%
R7
157
R8
145
R9
2
R10
257813
Both cards single Lindermann in leg 3 — the only leg any two tipsters agree to single. The cheapest quaddie of the day with the most agreement behind it. Brad's leg 4 is eight wide; Wintelligence's is six; the five above are the overlap.
☀️ Eagle Farm quaddie Wintelligence only · revised
Wintelligence (revised) 120 combos · 83% for $100
R7
17
R8
612
R9
124912
R10
358131516
Two two-horse legs up front where their confidence is (7/10 both), wide in the back two. Reasonable structure for a one-source card.
🌊 Morphettville quaddie Rowland's legs, R6–9
Julie Rowland (Best Bets) 4 × 4 × 3 × 3 = 144 combos
R6
13910
R7
2468
R8
31012
R9
61013
Note Fast Tempo (10) is not in her R7 leg. If you believe Kelton and Terry, add him — 5 × 4 × 3 × 3 = 180.
🎯 Multis & all-ups What the tipsters stake themselves
Brad — Multi of the Day · Toowoomba R6 Propaganda → Randwick R9 Lindermann → Hawkesbury R4 Harrybegood, all to win3 legs
Gator — Parlay 2–3 (win) · Tres Magnifique / Evaporate / Mr Verse — spend $25, cost $100. One leg scratched; at best it's now a 2-leg with Tres Magnifique and Evaporate.$25
Zerafa — LMS · $100 all-up win Savoyard → Evaporate. Collapses to a $100 win bet on Evaporate at $2.20.$100
Hutch — LMS · $50 win Evaporate + $50 win Hong Kong R9 Circuit Champion (also his Fortune Cookie)$100
Richo — LMS · $40 system 2,3 win & $60 all-up place: Tres Magnifique / Evaporate / Randwick R8 Tempted$100
Simon — LMS · $100 all-up: Savoyard (place) → Evaporate (win) → Randwick R7 Headley Grange (place). Now Evaporate win into Headley Grange place.$100
Get Out Stakes · Zerafa Randwick R10 Starzintheireyes · Richo Randwick R10 Fortune · Simon Randwick R10 Sneaky Sunrise · Hutch Hong Kong R10 Master PaymentRan R10
Four Last Man Standings, four go through Evaporate. Two of the four lost a leg to Savoyard's scratching. Consensus all-up: Tres Magnifique → Evaporate → Persian Spirit, about $21 the treble at Friday prices.
🌊 GetOn SA exotics Trixies and the Team Multi
Terry's Trixie · R5 The True Believer top 7 $2.00 · R7 Fast Tempo top 3 $2.10 · R9 Uptown Monk top 3 $3.003 legs
Tim's Trixie · R2 Deepfloat Diva top 3 $1.70 · R7 Big Sue top 6 $1.95 · R9 Common Interest top 6 $1.673 legs
Team Multi · Kelton: R7 Fast Tempo top 3 · Terry: R5 The True Believer top 7 $2.00 · Tim: R2 Deepfloat Diva top 3 $1.70 · Simon: R3 Giggenbach top 34 legs
Kelton's travel tips ("Out of the Eagle's Nest") · Sandown R5 Pretty Baby · Sandown R9 KlabelSan
Four multis built from the consensus card — only races still to run when this went up (after Sandown R3, Randwick R3, Morphettville R1, Eagle Farm R4). Legs are Mega Locks and Locks with a price above $2.20 wherever possible; the short-priced Megas (Tempted $1.80) are left out because they add risk without adding much to the return. Prices are Friday's — take the current ones. Same-race and place-multi versions are noted where they make sense.
⚠️ EARLY RESULTS CHANGE THE SHAPE
Tres Magnifique (San R3) ran second to Behaviour — Wintelligence's Value and Brad's #2 — so the 9-source Mega is gone and it's not in any multi below. Lepolo beat Cignetti in R1 (Brad and the 86 rating over seven sources), Ocean Bay beat the four-way R2 split with Blue Willow third, and Lord Remlap (Gator's #3, unbeaten) took the Highway over Mrs Goldberg. The form sources and the ratings are winning the early arguments; the multis lean on races where they agree with the count.
🎰 Multi 1 — The Spine 3 legs · win · ≈ $39
San R9 #6 Persian Spirit — 8/16, best wet tracker in the race, Asgari's Best Bet$3.30
San R6 #3 Blind Raise — 8/16, Brad's Best Value, favourite double-Sacked$3.50
Ran R10 #8 Starzintheireyes — 6/11, Brad + Wintelligence + Casey + Zerafa's Get Out$3.40
≈ $39 the treble · 1u. Three Megas, none under $3. This is the one — the count is high and the price hasn't been squeezed out of any leg.
🎰 Multi 2 — Sydney Heavyweights 3 legs · win · ≈ $15
Ran R6 #2 Pembrey — Brad's Next Best, Camilleri's Best Bet, rated 92$2.20
Ran R7 #7 Idle Flyer — Gator's Bet of the Day, Wintelligence Best Bet, four from four second-up$2.60
Ran R9 #2 Lindermann — Brad's Best Bet and Multi of the Day leg, Wintelligence 7/10, the only leg two quaddie cards both single$2.60
≈ $15 the treble · 1u. Brad, Gator and Wintelligence all on every leg. Shorter, but this is where the three heaviest sources line up on a dry track. Place version: about $2.20 the treble — Richo-style safety.
🎰 Multi 3 — The Consensus 4 legs · win · ≈ $58
Ran R4 #1 Thebudgiesmugla — 6/11, five from five at 2400m, Wizard's Next Best (Brad: "too short but who beats him")$2.30
San R6 #3 Blind Raise$3.50
San R7 #2 Evaporate — 11/16, every Last Man Standing runs through him$2.20
San R9 #6 Persian Spirit$3.30
≈ $58 · 0.5u. The four most-agreed horses left on the card. Evaporate and Thebudgiesmugla are exactly the sub-$2.50 Megas the Staking tab won't back on their own — a multi is the right place for them.
🎰 Multi 4 — The Dreamer 5 legs · win · ≈ $167
San R7 #2 Evaporate$2.20
San R9 #6 Persian Spirit$3.30
Ran R7 #7 Idle Flyer$2.60
Ran R9 #2 Lindermann$2.60
Ran R10 #8 Starzintheireyes$3.40
≈ $167 · 0.25u. Five legs across two tracks, all Mega or Lock, all with at least one of Brad / Gator / Wintelligence on top. It's a lottery ticket with a form guide behind it — stake it like one. Place-multi version (all five top three): roughly $4.50, and a much more honest bet.
🧮 The rules behind them
- Legs come from Mega Locks and Locks only. No Premiums, no roughies — the multi is for stacking agreement, not chasing price.
- Prefer legs over $2.20. Short legs barely move the return but each one can still lose. Tempted ($1.80) is left out of everything; Evaporate ($2.20) and Thebudgiesmugla ($2.30) only go in the two bigger multis where they're carried by the longer legs.
- No same-race double-ups — Changing Colours / Somewhere is a 4–4 split, so neither is a multi leg.
- Nothing from Morphettville or Eagle Farm. Six and three sources respectively is not enough agreement to carry a leg.
- Total multi exposure 2.75u on top of the 49.5u card. If a leg is scratched, most bookies void it and pay the rest — check the terms.
The tipsters' own multis (Brad's Multi of the Day, Gator's parlay, the four Last Man Standings, the GetOn SA Trixies and Team Multi) are on the 🎯 Quaddies tab.
Four tiers, sized by how many independent people agree — then adjusted for price, which is the week-one lesson. A unit is whatever you decide; the ratios are the point. Total exposure is 49.5 units across 21 bets over four meetings. If that's more than you want on, cut in this order: the two SA Locks, Cignetti/Cruiserweight are already out, then the sub-$2.50 Megas.
📉 THE PRICE FILTER
Week one: Mega Locks hit 28.6% at an average $2.62 and lost money; Locks hit 37.5% at $3.71 and made +6.27u. So this week anything under $2.20 is a multi leg, not a win bet (Tempted $1.80), and Megas at $2.20–$2.30 are cut to 2–3u (Evaporate, Thebudgiesmugla). The stake goes where the count and the price are both right: Tres Magnifique, Persian Spirit, Blind Raise, Portinari.
💰 The card
| Tier | Stake | Race | Selection | Odds | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEGA | 5u | San R3 | #8 Tres Magnifique | $2.90 | Win |
| MEGA | 5u | San R9 | #6 Persian Spirit | $3.30 | Win — best wet tracker in race |
| MEGA | 4u | San R6 | #3 Blind Raise | $3.50 | Win — fav double-Sacked |
| MEGA | 4u | Ran R10 | #8 Starzintheireyes | $3.40 | Win |
| MEGA | 3u | San R7 | #2 Evaporate | $2.20 | Win — cut from 5u for price |
| MEGA | 2u | Ran R4 | #1 Thebudgiesmugla | $2.30 | Win — cut, Brad against at price |
| LOCK | 3u | Ran R9 | #2 Lindermann | $2.60 | Win — Brad's Best Bet |
| LOCK | 3u | Ran R7 | #7 Idle Flyer | $2.60 | Win |
| LOCK | 3u | San R5 | #10 Portinari | $5.00 | Win |
| LOCK | 2u | San R8 | #13 Natural Fling | $3.10 | Win — see Moir tab if Heavy |
| LOCK | 2u | San R10 | #5 Changing Colours | $2.05 | Win — the 4–4 split |
| LOCK | 2u | San R10 | #15 Somewhere | $5–7 | Win — other half of the split |
| LOCK | 2u | San R2 | #6 Blue Willow | $5.50 | Each-way — the wet play |
| LOCK | 2u | Ran R6 | #2 Pembrey | $2.20 | Win |
| LOCK | 2u | Ran R2 | #4 Mrs Goldberg | $5.00 | Win |
| LOCK | 1.5u | Morph R3 | #7 Giggenbach | – | Win |
| LOCK | 1.5u | Morph R9 | #10 You Sexy Thing | – | Win |
| ROUGH | 1u | San R8 | #3 Skybird | $15 | Each-way — it rained |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | Ran R3 | #5 Tequila Baby | $21 | Each-way |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | San R5 | #2 Rubi's Choice | $14 | Each-way |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | San R4 | #12 Ivan's Hero | $14 | Each-way |
📏 Tier rules
- Mega Lock — 4–5u win at $2.50+. Under $2.50 cut to 2–3u; under $2.20 multi leg only.
- Lock (3–5 sources) — 2–3u win. This is where week one's profit came from.
- Premium — 1–2u, or nothing where a Sack is live.
- Roughie — 0.5–1u each-way. Never more.
🚫 Not backed, and why
- Ran R8 Tempted — $1.80. Richo's all-up place leg is the right use.
- San R1 Cignetti — 7 sources, but Brad and the 86 rating are on Lepolo. Skip the race.
- San R4 Cruiserweight — count says Lock, but Wintelligence and Gator moved to Fundamental Nature and it rates higher. 4–2 with the form sources on the other side.
- Ran R1 Felix Majestic — seven scratchings, 3/10 confidence, Wintelligence's pick was one of the scratchings.
- San R6 Closer To Free · San R5 Pretty Baby — live Sacks.
- Morph R7 Fast Tempo — two GetOn sources against two racebook tipsters and no rating. Pass.
- All Eagle Farm win bets — three sources on three different horses in R4 says it all. Quaddie only; Siesta each-way at 0.5u if you must.
🎯 Exotic allocation
- Randwick quaddie 3×3×1×5 — $22.50 at 50%. Best value structure of the day.
- Sandown quaddie trimmed 3×5×3×3 — $27 at 20%. Or single Evaporate + Changing Colours, 20 combos for 100%.
- Consensus all-up — Tres Magnifique → Evaporate → Persian Spirit, ~$21.
- Eagle Farm quaddie — Wintelligence's revised legs, 83% for $100, or half.
24 distinct people or mastheads this week, up from 13. The big change: all three Best Bets racebooks arrived (VIC, NSW, SA) — Morphettville has a ratings-based form source for the first time, and Sandown has a HEAVY column on the day it might need one.
| Source | Tracks | What it gives | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Davidson | Randwick (full), Sandown (numbers + Moir) | Best Bet / Next Best / Value with rated prices and stated confidence; race-by-race selections; quaddies; Multi of the Day; Taking Them On (empty) | 1.60 |
| Ozracingform (Gator) | Sandown, Randwick | Top 5 rated per race, Bet of the Day per state, Best Value / Each-Way / Roughie, parlay, track and rail read, wet-form comments | 1.35 |
| Wintelligence | Sandown, Randwick, Eagle Farm | Top / Value / Longshot with confidence /10; Pub Sheet; quaddies; raceday scratchings email with revised picks and track update. One source, three documents. | 1.35 |
| Best Bets Racebook — VIC | Sandown | Paul Richards SOFT / GOOD / HEAVY columns + suggested bet; Joel Marshall; John Barker (p.37 summary); ratings /100; pace map; scratchings | 1.10 / 1.05 / 1.00 |
| Best Bets Racebook — NSW | Randwick | Kevin Casey GOOD / SOFT / HEAVY + suggested bet; Joel Marshall; ratings; pace. HEAVY = "None Recommended" all day. | 1.10 / 1.05 |
| Best Bets Racebook — SA ✨ new | Morphettville | Julie Rowland SOFT / GOOD / HEAVY + suggested bet; Paul Richards; ratings; pace | 1.10 / 1.10 |
| GetOn Tip Sheet (VIC) | Sandown, Randwick | Zerafa, Hutchison, Richardson, Simon Marshall — Back / Sack / Crack, Get Ons, Zerafa's quaddie, Moir strategies with $, Last Man Standing, Get Out Stakes | 1.00 / 1.00 / 0.90 / 0.90 |
| GetOn SA Tip Sheet | Morphettville | Kelton, McAuliffe, Yeatman, Simon Marshall — Back / Sack / Crack, Get Ons, Trixies, Team Multi, Kelton's travel tips | 1.00 / 0.90 / 0.90 |
| GetOn Best & Value graphic | All | Ten panellists, one Best and one Value each with Sportsbet odds. Adds Strehlau, Nevett, Jelfs; confirms Kelton = John, McAuliffe = Terry, Yeatman = Tim, Richardson = Richo | 0.90 |
| Wizard of Odds | Randwick, Eagle Farm (+ Toowoomba) | Best Bet / Next Best / Each Way, one each, with a running 2026 record (28: 10-5-1, 36% win / 57% place) | 1.20 |
| Racing.com state tipsters | All | Hutchison, Hayes, Asgari, Kneebone (VIC); Camilleri (NSW); Kelton (SA); Hill (QLD) — Best / Next Best / Value | 0.95–1.00 |
🧮 The counting rule
Count people, not columns. Hutchison and Simon Marshall each file for GetOn and Racing.com; Kelton is "John" on the SA sheet and "John Kelton" on Racing.com; Wintelligence sent three documents; Paul Richards tips both the VIC and SA racebooks. Each person counts once per track.
A pick counts when the horse is on top — first in a ranked list, a Best Bet, a Crack, a declared Back where it's the person's only bet in the race, or a Get On. Values, longshots, threats, second strings and multi legs are shown as plain chips and don't add to the count. Where a tipster's top pick was scratched (Wintelligence R4, R1; Gator R9, R10) their next-ranked runner is used and marked.
Denominators: Sandown 16 · Randwick 11 · Morphettville 6 · Eagle Farm 3. Mega = 5+ and at least half; Lock = 3–5; Premium = 2, or any horse carrying a Sack; a Sack caps a horse at Premium regardless.
🔄 What changed this week
- All three racebooks arrived — last week only NSW came through. The Sandown HEAVY column exists on a day it matters.
- Wizard of Odds arrived after the first publish — Best Bet is Toowoomba (The Louvre, not on our card), Next Best Thebudgiesmugla, Each Way Siesta at Eagle Farm. Randwick is now 11 sources, Eagle Farm 3. The Analyser and the five-column Racing.com Saturday Best panel weren't in the upload.
- Price filter added to Staking after week one's tier results.
- GetOn names resolved — the SA panel are John Kelton, Terry McAuliffe and Tim Yeatman; VIC's "Richo" is Jason Richardson. The database now uses full names so their results accrue to one person.
- Brad's Sandown card was numbers-only this week apart from the Moir; Randwick got the full write-up.
🕳️ Gaps to close
- Any Queensland form source — Eagle Farm ran on two opinion sources. A QLD racebook (Nelson / Williams) would fix that.
- Sandown final track rating at 4pm — if it's downgraded to Heavy, the Wet Trackers tab is the sheet.
- Sportsbet prices for Morphettville — no odds on any SA horse outside the GetOn graphic.
⚠️ STANDING CAVEAT
Agreement isn't edge. Week one showed the most-agreed horses were also the shortest, and short favourites at 28% don't pay. The consensus tells you where the informed opinion sits; the price tells you whether to bet. Every Sandown price here was set on a Good 4 on Friday morning and will have moved. Bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling Help 1800 858 858.