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Checking results…
⚠️ THE ONE THING TO KNOW
Caulfield is a Soft 7 and the day's most-backed horse has never raced on wet ground. Sass Appeal (Caul R10) has 8 of 13 sources and Zerafa's $100 Last Man Standing. Ozracingform's note on her is four words: "Never seen wet." In the same race Ten Commandments $5.50 is a "gun wet tracker — wetter the better." Stake accordingly.
🔴 Mega Locks Top of the consensus
Caulfield R5 · G3 Courtza 1200m
🔴 MEGA #1#6 SHADHAVAR$2.90
Asgari BEST BET $25Kneebone BEST BET
WintelligenceBrad DavidsonZerafa
HutchisonTimSimon
Grace $20OZR #2
WHYLed and kept kicking against males fresh. Three straight now at 1200m, proven second-up, and she leads inside them from gate 1 — which matters on a track where 6 of 9 winners last meeting were within 2.2L of the lead at the 600m.
Take-on: #7 FLYER at $34 — Ozracingform's Best Roughie of the Day. Beat Shadhavar here last year and meets her 6kg better.
Caulfield R9 · G3 Heatherlie 1700m
🔴 MEGA #2#10 YELLOW JERSEY$2.35
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Melb)Wintelligence 7/10
Brad Value $2.25AsgariHutchison
KneeboneBarkerSimonRicho all-up
WHYExciting import, super in Queensland beating all-bar a fit flying wet tracker before being quickly spelled. Trials excellent — thrashed Barnavara in a recent Sydney trial under a hold.
Signal: Wintelligence singled him in the quaddie — the only single leg anyone ran across all three tracks. Zerafa is the lone dissenter (#3 Kingswood).
Caulfield R3 · Quality 2000m
🔴 MEGA #3#10 DARKBONEE$3.00
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10OZR #1Brad Davidson
ZerafaBarkerTim
SimonAsgari $15Hutch trifecta anchor
WHYWintelligence's highest confidence of the meeting. Terrific return from back and wide with weight at Flemington, then bolted in by two lengths here second-up from another wide gate. Finally draws a barrier out to 2000m. OZR: "advantage this guy wet, and on the up."
Danger: #2 SAINT GEORGE — Asgari's actual pick ($10 win) and Wintelligence's Value at $8. Beat Darkbonee by 0.75L in January on similar weights.
Caulfield R6 · Listed The Heath 1100m
🔴 MEGA #4#3 OLIVEANOTHERDAY$2.60
Wintelligence BEST BET 7/10Hutchison BEST BET
Barker BEST BETOZR #1Asgari
KneeboneSimon
WHYFour from four last prep, all demolition jobs, aggregate 12.5 lengths. Both trials this prep phenomenal — destroyed Group 1 performers in the latest under a hold. Not well weighted, but OZR reckons it's advantage him wet and at 1100m.
Brad Davidson has #9 BRIDAL WALTZ on top instead ($4.00 Value, and the back leg of his Multi of the Day). Won 3 of 5 on Soft. Also #1 WAR MACHINE — best weighted, Grace Hayes $15 win — failed on a Soft 7 last November and the rider said he didn't handle it.
Caulfield R10 · BM100 1400m
🔴 MEGA #5#11 SASS APPEAL$2.90
WET QUERY
Zerafa BEST BET + $100 LMSWintelligenceBrad Davidson
HutchisonKneeboneSimon
RichoGrace $25OZR #2
WHYJob done fresh with no weight and 8.5kg less than Rise At Dawn. Unbeaten since debut, beat G1-2 fillies easily in two wins to end last prep.
OZR: "Never seen wet." This is a Soft 7. #12 TEN COMMANDMENTS is a "gun wet tracker — wetter the better, the opposite of Another Wil", is Barker's pick and Wintelligence's Value at $5.50. Reduce Sass Appeal and take the saver.
Rosehill R5 · BM78 1500m
🔴 MEGA #6#2 MR MILLER$1.95
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10Casey WIN BET
OZR #1Joel MarshallHarry White
Best Bets rating 84
WHYFuture stakes horse in a race of gallopers stuck in this grade. Walked in fresh at Warwick Farm running time with 59kg. "Could well be unbeaten with even luck." Loses J-Mac but maps for a good run.
#11 STAGNUM is Brad Davidson's value bet of the entire day — each-way, more on the place, precisely because Mr Miller is hard to beat. $10 / $2.70.
Rosehill R10 · BM94 1200m
🔴 MEGA #7#2 GRAND IMPACT$2.10
Casey WIN BETWintelligence (updated)Brad Davidson
Joel MarshallSimon Get Out StakesOZR #3
WHYRunner-up in both runs back and good over this track and distance last start. "Ready to win," "the hoof right on the till."
#12 AMAZING EAGLE scratched — OZR's top-rated runner gone. That's what made this race.
Rosehill R3 · BM78 2000m
🔴 MEGA #8#3 AETHELWULF$1.55
Brad BEST (rates $1.40)Wintelligence 7/10
OZR #1CaseyMarshall
Best Bets rating 90
WHYBack-to-back wins by an aggregate 11.4 lengths, and those are his only two runs beyond 1500m. Already attracting Metropolitan market support.
Casey's bet is conditional — "pending a fair price, win bet 3." At $1.55 that condition isn't met. Use him as the anchor of Brad's Multi of the Day, not a standalone win bet.
🔒 Locks 3–5 sources
Caulfield R4 · BM84 1400m
🔒 LOCK#13 ITAZURA$5.50
WintelligenceBrad DavidsonHutchison
BarkerSimon all-up placeOZR #4
WHYTook a good scalp fresh in subsequent impressive winner Darkbonee. Won her only other second-up run.
#19 CRUISERWEIGHT scratched — OZR's #2 rating and Brad's #2 pick gone, and the exact horse Zerafa, Hutchison and Simon all independently Sacked before the scratching. Three panellists vindicated.
Caulfield R8 · G1 MEMSIE 1400m
🔒 LOCK#10 BEIWACHT$6.50
Hutch $50 WINRicho $40Zerafa $40
Asgari $15KneeboneOZR #2
WHYLikely leader, Rawiller retains after winning the All Aged on him. Two starts at 1400m for two very fast G1 wins. A leader's pattern like last meeting really helps him.
Nine individual G1 winners in this. Beiwacht is the one runner with an explicit wet question — "Soft-5 no issue but unknown if wetter really." Full money map on the Memsie tab.
Caulfield R1 · F&M BM78 1400m
🔒 LOCK#5 BUTTERNUT PRINCESS$6.00
OZR BEST VALUE OF DAYWintelligenceZerafa
Asgari $10SimonBrad #2
WHYRan home nicely fresh at 1100m then sharply to 1400m here second-up. Won third-up last prep. Blinkers go on. OZR: "Overs $8?"
Three-way split: #3 Stealth Of Night has Hutchison, Barker, Tim, Simon. #1 Davida has Kneebone, Grace ($20) and Asgari ($15 — his biggest R1 stake). Saver or skip.
Rosehill R8 · G3 San Domenico 1100m
🔒 LOCK#6 BLUE DOOR$2.15
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Syd)WintelligenceBrad Davidson
CamilleriMarshall #2
WHYGreat speed to lead fresh then quickened, beating all-bar Chilly Girl in fast time off one trial. Fitter now, maps to control from the inside draw.
Brad: "on top but well found". Casey breaks ranks with #3 Music Time each-way, and Best Bets rate Berzelius 92 and Guest House 89 ahead of her.
Rosehill R9 · BM100 1500m
🔒 LOCK#7 ALTHOFF$2.00
RATINGS DISAGREE
Brad BESTWintelligenceOZR #1
Marshall
WHYExcellent return savaging the line out wide against a nasty bias, then made two smart ones look second-class with the softest of wins. Brad: "gone to another level, and the price is still fair" despite the wide gate.
The clearest tipster-vs-ratings clash of the day. Best Bets rate Run Harry Run 81, Althoff 66, Fully Lit 65 — and Casey's win bet is #3 Fully Lit, also Wintelligence's Value at $4.60.
Rosehill R6 · BM78 1100m
🔒 LOCK#1 SHE'S AN ARTIST$4.00
Casey WIN BETOZR #1Brad Davidson
MarshallBest Bets rating 84
WHYFirst-up in Sydney off soft jump-outs and maps nicely. Two from three first-up. Big weight against males is the query.
#5 HARRY GOT STYLES at $21 — OZR: "looks overs." Wintelligence is the outlier on #4 Kimberley Secrets.
Morphettville R7 · Heavy 8
🔒 LOCK#9 THE COSMIC ONE$1.57 top 4
Kelton NEXT BESTJohnTerry
Tim (Crack + Multi)John & Tim SACK the fav
WHYKelton: "Building a good winning record early in his career. Covered extra ground last start and won." Two sources independently Sack the favourite Mating Call.
Morphettville R6 · Heavy 8
🔒 LOCK#12 NICAJON
Kelton BEST BETJohn (Crack)Terry
WHYKelton: "He might be 12 years old but he's in super form. Should have gone close last week."
Morphettville R3 · Heavy 8
🔒 LOCK#8 TYUSIX
Kelton BEST VALUEJohnSimon
WHY"At peak fitness third-up. Maps nicely and comes in well after the claim for Inglese."
⭐ Premium plays 2 sources, or one with conviction
PREMEF R1 #3 HOWDOYOUZOU $3.20
Wizard of Odds Best Bet of the day — he's 27 bets for 9-5-1 in 2026 (33% win / 56% place) and all three tips won last week. Won on the Soft and at 1000m. Wintelligence agrees.
PREMEF R8 #5 POLYGLOT $2.80
Rebecca Hill + Wintelligence. "Last-start winner, steps up to open company but the form around him is solid and he drops 7kg."
PREMCAUL R2 #14 JENNI MULTABELLA $3.20
Top-rated by OZR, Wintelligence and Brad — and by none of the five Racing.com panellists, who split five ways. Form sources against personality sources.
PREMROSE R2 #5 XTREME $4.00
Casey's win bet + Marshall. Missed the top four once in his career; maps well and already a winner at 1400m.
PREMROSE R1 #10 PROXIMA DEA $3.50
Brad + Wintelligence + Marshall, and Best Bets rate her 88. Casey wants a quinella 1+3 instead.
⚠️ SACKEDCAUL R7 #9 AMERICAN EAGLE $4.60
Four sources like him, but GetOn's Tim Sacks him outright and a Sack is a hard no here. Wintelligence's lowest Caulfield confidence (4/10). Pass.
💎 Roughies 0.5–1 unit, each-way
$34CAUL R5 #7 FLYER
OZR's Best Roughie of the Day. "Beat Shadhavar last year here and meets her 6kg better. $34 early looks massive!" The only real way to take on the day's biggest lock.
$5.50CAUL R10 #12 TEN COMMANDMENTS
The wet play of the day. "Gun wet tracker — wetter the better." Barker's pick, Wintelligence's Value, on a Soft 7 against a favourite who's never seen wet.
$10 / $2.70ROSE R5 #11 STAGNUM
Brad Davidson's value bet of the whole day — each-way, more on the place. "Clear best closer last start, draws in, Soft-5 is ok." OZR calls him the value danger.
$9.50 / $3.10ROSE R2 #8 GIDDY UP GRIFF
Best Bets rate him 90 — top of the race — and not one tipster names him on top. Wintelligence's Value. Pure ratings-versus-opinion overlay.
$21ROSE R6 #5 HARRY GOT STYLES
OZR: "ran as well as Street Artist last start given he had to run to the slower inside lanes. $21 looks overs."
$4.00CAUL R6 #9 BRIDAL WALTZ
Brad has her on top ahead of the mega lock, and she's the back half of his Multi of the Day. Won 3 of 5 on Soft.
🚫 Sack calls Hard no, regardless of support
| Race | Horse | Sacked by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caul R4 | #19 Cruiserweight | Zerafa, Hutchison, Simon | SCRATCHED Called it |
| Caul R7 | #9 American Eagle | Tim | Live — 4 sources on him |
| Morph R7 | #1 Mating Call | John, Tim | Live — favourite |
| Morph R6 | #5 Brave Star | Simon | Live |
| Morph R2 | #1 Chief Little Rock | Terry | Live |
Brad Davidson's "Taking Them On" oppose list is empty this week — nothing he thinks is too short.
📊 Full consensus summary
| Race | Horse | Tier | OZR | Wint | Brad | Panel / Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caul R5 | #6 Shadhavar | MEGA | #2 | Top | #1 | Asgari BB $25, Kneebone BB, Hutch, Tim, Simon, Grace $20, Zerafa |
| Caul R9 | #10 Yellow Jersey | MEGA | BOD Melb | Top 7/10 | Value | Asgari, Hutch, Kneebone, Barker, Simon, Richo |
| Caul R3 | #10 Darkbonee | MEGA | #1 | BB 8/10 | #1 | Zerafa, Barker, Tim, Simon, Asgari $15 |
| Caul R6 | #3 Oliveanotherday | MEGA | #1 | BB 7/10 | #2 | Hutch BB, Barker BB, Asgari, Kneebone, Simon |
| Caul R10 | #11 Sass Appeal | MEGA | #2 | Top | #1 | Zerafa BB $100, Hutch, Kneebone, Simon, Richo, Grace $25 |
| Rose R5 | #2 Mr Miller | MEGA | #1 | BB 8/10 | #2 | Casey win bet, Marshall, Harry White |
| Rose R10 | #2 Grand Impact | MEGA | #3 | Top | #1 | Casey win bet, Marshall, Simon GOS |
| Rose R3 | #3 Aethelwulf | MEGA | #1 | Top 7/10 | BEST | Casey, Marshall, BB rating 90 |
| Caul R4 | #13 Itazura | LOCK | #4 | Top | #1 | Hutch, Barker, Simon |
| Caul R8 | #10 Beiwacht | LOCK | #2 | – | #4 | Hutch $50, Richo $40, Zerafa $40, Asgari $15, Kneebone |
| Caul R1 | #5 Butternut Princess | LOCK | Best Value | Top | #2 | Zerafa, Asgari $10, Simon |
| Rose R8 | #6 Blue Door | LOCK | BOD Syd | Top | #1 | Camilleri, Marshall #2 |
| Rose R9 | #7 Althoff | LOCK | #1 | Top | BEST | Marshall — but Casey wants Fully Lit |
| Rose R6 | #1 She's An Artist | LOCK | #1 | – | #1 | Casey win bet, Marshall, BB 84 |
| Morph R7 | #9 The Cosmic One | LOCK | – | – | – | Kelton NB, John, Terry, Tim |
| Morph R6 | #12 Nicajon | LOCK | – | – | – | Kelton BB, John, Terry |
| Morph R3 | #8 Tyusix | LOCK | – | – | – | Kelton BV, John, Simon |
| EF R1 | #3 Howdoyouzou | PREM | – | Top 6/10 | – | Wizard of Odds BEST BET |
| EF R8 | #5 Polyglot | PREM | – | Top 6/10 | – | Rebecca Hill BB |
| Caul R2 | #14 Jenni Multabella | PREM | #1 | Top | #1 | OZR parlay leg — no panel support |
| Rose R2 | #5 Xtreme | PREM | #2 | – | #2 | Casey win bet, Marshall |
| Rose R1 | #10 Proxima Dea | PREM | #2 | Top | #1 | Marshall, BB rating 88 |
🏁 CAULFIELDSOFT 7Rail out 4m · fine forecast
Wintelligence: a couple of Friday afternoon showers probably stopped it reaching the Good 4 / Soft 5 range, but it should present and race as a genuine soft track.
Ozracingform: rail was True last meeting and on-pace runners had a very good day — 6 of the 9 winners were within 2.2 lengths of the lead at the 600m. All his Caulfield ratings are done for a Soft track.
R1F&M BM78 · 1400mLOCK
#5 BUTTERNUT PRINCESS$6.00
OZR Best Value of DayWintelligenceZerafaAsgari $10SimonBrad #2
WHYRan home nicely fresh at 1100m then sharply to 1400m here second-up, strong finale against the day's pattern. Won third-up last prep. Blinkers go on. "Overs $8?"
Three-way. #3 Stealth Of Night: Hutchison, Barker, Tim, Simon — "4-wide into a headwind fresh and held ground very well, unbeaten second-up." #1 Davida: Kneebone, Grace $20, Asgari $15 — 61kg but first leader if she jumps clean.
R2BM78 · 1800mPREM
#14 JENNI MULTABELLA$3.20
OZR #1WintelligenceBrad DavidsonOZR parlay leg
WHYWide and neat win second-up, then did a power of work in The Heath track race last start — "best run in the race by a margin for mine." Melham takes over, 53.5kg out to 1800m.
The split of the day. All three form sources here; all five Racing.com panellists elsewhere — Lincoln Rocks (4, Zerafa + Simon + Asgari $2/$8), Blue Willow (15, Kneebone), Makdane (2, Barker), Amleto (3, Hutchison), Politely Dun (11, Tim). Wizard of Odds: #2 MAKDANE each way $7 — won at track, distance and on the Soft. #15 Blue Willow is the wet-tracker angle.
R3Quality · 2000mMEGA
#10 DARKBONEE$3.00
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10OZR #1BradZerafaBarkerTimSimonAsgari $15
WHYWon two BM66s with dominance, then a monumental rise to a BM100 at Flemington where only a wide gate beat him. Bolted in by two lengths here second-up from another wide draw. Finally draws a gate out to 2000m. "Advantage this guy wet."
#2 SAINT GEORGE — Asgari's pick ($10 win), Wintelligence's Value $8. Beat Darkbonee by 0.75L in January, similar weights, and "just classes above them" last start. Hutchison's Best Value is #9 SEE THAT STORM, whose whole case is "back on dry latest — check track!" On a Soft 7 that's a warning, not a tip.
EXOTICHutchi's trifecta: #10 Darkbonee with 2, 4, 8, 9, 14 — 20 combos.
R4BM84 · 1400mLOCK19 CRUISERWEIGHT SCR
#13 ITAZURA$5.50
WintelligenceBradHutchisonBarkerSimon all-up placeOZR #4
WHYNice ride and win fresh, taking a good scalp in subsequent impressive winner Darkbonee. Won her only other second-up run. Stays at 1400m.
The scratching matters. Cruiserweight was OZR's #2 and Brad's #2 — and the horse Zerafa, Hutchison and Simon all independently Sacked. Others: #18 Victorious Spirit (OZR #1 + Kneebone, resuming off a hot trial, "overs?"), #2 Home Rule (Asgari's Best Value, $10 win / $15 place, Wintelligence Value $6), #11 Savisanta $21 longshot.
R5G3 Courtza · Mares SWP · 1200mMEGA
#6 SHADHAVAR$2.90
Asgari BEST BET $25Kneebone BEST BETWintelligenceBradZerafaHutchisonTimSimonGrace $20OZR #2
WHYLed and kept kicking against males fresh — a tough effort. Three straight now at 1200m, proven second-up, leads inside them from gate 1.
#7 FLYER $34 — OZR's Best Roughie of the Day. "Good mare when ridden cold. Beat Shadhavar last year here and meets her 6kg better. $34 early looks massive!" #1 BELLE CHEVAL is Barker's pick, "unbeaten wet since her debut third." #4 BOSSY BENITA — Grace Hayes each-way, "wet no issue her." #12 PHOTOGRAPH loves wet but is a dual acceptor with Rosehill R10.
R6Listed The Heath · SWP · 1100mMEGA
#3 OLIVEANOTHERDAY$2.60
Wintelligence BEST BET 7/10Hutchison BEST BETBarker BEST BETOZR #1AsgariKneeboneSimon
WHYFour from four last prep by an aggregate 12.5 lengths, all demolition jobs, progressing from a midweek Ballarat BM70 to a Listed Wangoom. Wintelligence: "would have won G1 The Goodwood had he gone there." Both trials phenomenal — destroyed G1 performers in the latest under a hold.
#9 BRIDAL WALTZ is Brad Davidson's top pick and Value ($4.00), ahead of the mega lock, and the back leg of his Multi of the Day. 2L second to War Machine fresh last spring, won 3 of 5 on Soft, loved her trial. Tim has her top-3 in the More Places Multi. #1 WAR MACHINE is best weighted and Grace Hayes' $15 win — but failed on a Soft 7 last November and the rider said he didn't handle it.
R7G3 McNeil · 3YO SWP · 1200mSACKED — PASS
#9 AMERICAN EAGLE$4.60
Wintelligence 4/10BradHutchisonKneeboneOZR #2Tim SACKS
WHYRight in the betting on debut and won a hot form race well — though not looking overly happy on a Heavy 9. Has since run home hard in a very nice trial.
Lowest-confidence race on the Caulfield card — Wintelligence 4/10 plus a live Sack. OZR's #1 is #2 UNIT FIVE (Zerafa + Simon), two lovely trials under no effort. Asgari goes alone on #7 Phillip Island $5 win / $15 place. Barker: #1 Seize The Day, "two dominant wins in NZ on Soft."
R8G1 MEMSIE STAKES · WFA · 1400mLOCK
#10 BEIWACHT$6.50
Hutch $50 WINRicho $40Zerafa $40Asgari $15KneeboneOZR #2
WHYLikely leader, Rawiller retains after winning the All Aged aboard him before the spell. Two starts at 1400m for two very fast G1 wins, and in the latest he beat Jimmysstar.
Nine individual G1 winners. Full money map, Wizard's read and the exotics on the 🏆 Memsie tab.
R9G3 Heatherlie · 1700mMEGA
#10 YELLOW JERSEY$2.35
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Melb)Wintelligence 7/10Brad ValueAsgariHutchisonKneeboneBarkerSimonRicho
WHYExciting import who was super in Queensland beating all-bar a fit, flying wet tracker before being quickly spelled. Trials excellent — thrashed Barnavara in a recent Sydney trial under a hold. Just one Australian start.
Wintelligence singled him in the quaddie — the only single leg across all three tracks. Others: #15 Zakouma (OZR #2, last two fresh runs brilliant wins at 1600m and 1700m), #16 First Chorus (Wintelligence Value $6, blinkers on), #3 Kingswood (Zerafa's lone dissent).
R10BM100 · 1400mMEGAWET QUERY
#11 SASS APPEAL$2.90
Zerafa BEST BET + $100 LMSWintelligenceBradHutchisonKneeboneSimonRichoGrace $25OZR #2
WHYJob done fresh with no weight and 8.5kg less than Rise At Dawn. Unbeaten since debut and beat G1-2 fillies easily in two wins to end last prep.
OZR on Sass Appeal: "Never seen wet." This is a Soft 7. #12 TEN COMMANDMENTS $5.50 — "gun wet tracker, great chase latest and right with Rise At Dawn prior with 10kg less, which ties in with fave Sass Appeal. The opposite of Another Wil — wetter the better." Barker's pick, Wintelligence's Value. #1 ANOTHER WIL is OZR's #1 and Asgari's $10 — but "too wet in the Stradbroke latest, drier the better for him."
🌿 ROSEHILLSOFT 5Rail out 3m · no rain about
Wintelligence expect an upgrade into the good range wouldn't surprise. OZR: rail was True last meeting and the track played well — off the hard inside was the key. At 4m on 18 July, running on from off the inside was no issue on wet.
No wet overlay to find here. The Best Bets racebook publishes Good / Soft / Heavy columns per race. For all ten Rosehill races the Heavy column reads "None Recommended" and the Soft column is identical to Good — so at Soft 5 there's nothing extra to exploit in Sydney.
R1Midway BM72 · 1800mPREM
#10 PROXIMA DEA$3.50
WintelligenceBradMarshallBest Bets rating 88
WHYTwo from two, gets in nice and light. Beat Sirius Moss carting 59kg — well above WFA — and that horse beat Orange Tsunami in July.
Casey wants a quinella 1+3, not her. OZR's #1 is #1 FEDERAL RESERVE, "overs $7?". Brad rates it Low confidence — an open race.
R2Highway C2 · 1400mPREM
#5 XTREME$4.00
Casey WIN BETMarshallOZR #2Brad #2
WHYVery genuine four-year-old who has missed the top four once. Bloused late in one of these last start when only first-up. Maps well, already a winner at 1400m.
Best overlay on the card: #8 GIDDY UP GRIFF rated 90 by Best Bets — top of the race — and tipped on top by nobody. Wintelligence's Value $9.50 / $3.10, Marshall's #4. Also #14 THINK BACK — Wintelligence's and OZR's top pick at $13-15, "may be highway overs." Brad wants #6 Zalique but flags the wide draw.
R3BM78 · 2000mMEGA
#3 AETHELWULF$1.55
Brad BEST (rates $1.40)Wintelligence 7/10OZR #1CaseyMarshallBest Bets 90
WHYBack-to-back wins by an aggregate 11.4 lengths, and those are his only two runs beyond 1500m. Trialled super since. Brad: "capable of progressing to Group level — this appears his race to lose."
Casey's bet is conditional: "pending a fair price, win bet 3." At $1.55 that's not met — use him in the multi. Danger #6 Anthracite (Wintelligence Value $8.50), third to King Of The Sea at Randwick last week on the quick back-up.
R4F&M BM78 · 1500mLOCK
#5 AVISTA$3.50
Best Bets 94 — highest rating of the meetingWintelligenceBradOZR #1Marshall #2
WHYThree from three this prep. Last win had more merit than it looked given the slow tempo — she still clocked the best late splits of the day and the form has held up.
Casey's "slight lean to #4 SCRIPTED" (Wintelligence Value $5). Marshall's top is #6 TRANSCEND, who lost the race on protest last start — clear improvement, 1500m suits, needs luck from the gate.
R5BM78 C,G&E · 1500mMEGA
#2 MR MILLER$1.95
Wintelligence BEST BET 8/10Casey WIN BETOZR #1MarshallHarry WhiteBest Bets 84
WHYFuture stakes-quality horse against gallopers stuck in this grade. Walked in fresh at Warwick Farm running time with 59kg. Loses James McDonald but maps for a good run with plenty of upside.
#11 STAGNUM — Brad Davidson's value bet of the entire day. Each-way with more on the place, precisely because Mr Miller is hard to beat. "Finished off really well from a wide gate, gets a drying track again, can settle closer from the better draw." OZR: "looks value danger $11." Wintelligence Value $10 / $2.70. Watch #8 Botanical Boy — Wintelligence's $11 longshot but both his best wins were on dry.
R6BM78 · 1100mLOCK
#1 SHE'S AN ARTIST$4.00
Casey WIN BETOZR #1BradMarshallBest Bets 84
WHYFirst-up in Sydney off soft jump-outs and maps nicely. Terrific fresh win against the bias last prep; two from three first-up. Big weight against males is the query.
#5 HARRY GOT STYLES $21 — OZR: "ran as well as Street Artist last start given he had to make his run to the slower inside lanes. Looks overs." Wintelligence is the outlier on #4 Kimberley Secrets $5.50 / $2.00. #12 Oh Arthur is Brad's danger but has speed drawn inside him.
R7G3 Up And Coming · 3YO Qlty · 1300mPREM — SMALL
#6 PLAGIARISM$4.60
OZR BEST EACH-WAY OF DAYCasey leaningWintelligence ValueBrad #2
WHYReturned gelded here and led the $1.65 winner with 60kg, gave all. Fitter now and has 6kg on runner-up Savvy Diamond at this scale.
Brad's own words: "DEADSET LOTTERY THIS!" — confidence Low. He and Wintelligence tip #9 Savagram. And Best Bets rate #3 SOUTHEND 94, top of the race, Marshall's #2, off a G3 Bailleu win and a G1 Champagne placing — nobody else names him. Small stakes only.
R8G3 San Domenico · 3YO SWP · 1100mLOCK
#6 BLUE DOOR$2.15
OZR BET OF THE DAY (Syd)WintelligenceBradCamilleriMarshall #2
WHYGreat speed to lead fresh then quickened nicely before beating all-bar smart Chilly Girl in fast time, off just one trial. Fitter, and from the inside draw maps to own it from the front.
Brad: "on top but well found." Casey breaks ranks with #3 MUSIC TIME each-way. Best Bets rate Berzelius 92 and Guest House 89 above her. Wintelligence's Value is #8 WILD ATLANTIC $7 — unraced, brilliant trial win, has beaten St Gotthard in a trial which ties into Blue Door's own form.
R9BM100 · 1500mLOCKRATINGS DISAGREE
#7 ALTHOFF$2.00
Brad BESTWintelligenceOZR #1Marshall
WHYExcellent return savaging the line out wide against a nasty bias, then made two smart ones look second-class with the softest of wins. Brad: with a few here better suited over further, he should slot three pairs back, get to the outside and prove too good despite the wide draw.
Best Bets rate him 66 to Run Harry Run's 81, and Casey's outright win bet is #3 FULLY LIT (rated 65) — Wintelligence's Value at $4.60. Fully Lit was comfortably beaten by Althoff last start but is fitter and gets the extra 100m. #10 Rolling Magic has a 3.5kg swing and Brad notes "a wetter track may suit him better."
R10BM94 · 1200mMEGA12 AMAZING EAGLE SCR
#2 GRAND IMPACT$2.10
Casey WIN BETWintelligence updatedBradMarshallSimon Get Out StakesBest Bets 75
WHYBack really well this prep — runner-up in both runs back and good over this track and distance last start. "Ready to win," "the hoof right on the till."
Two scratchings made this race: Amazing Eagle (OZR's #1) and Cigar Flick both out. Grand Impact firmed $4.00 → $2.10 in the Wintelligence raceday update; #4 Cosmic Fire is now their Value at $5.00. Zerafa's Get Out Stakes is #9 PHOTOGRAPH — but OZR wonders if connections send her to Caulfield instead given the wetter track.
🌊 MORPHETTVILLEHEAVY 8
The wettest track of the day and the thinnest coverage. Five sources: the four GetOn SA panellists (John, Terry, Tim, Simon) plus John Kelton's Racing.com tips. Wintelligence, Ozracingform, Brad Davidson and Wizard of Odds all skip South Australia this week, and the Best Bets VIC and QLD racebooks didn't come through.
That means no condition-split column and no wet-form commentary on a single Morphettville runner. Treat everything here as opinion with no wet-form check behind it. Place bets or small stakes only — no win bets recommended.
R1
#7 TULLY RAPIDS
Terry (Back of the day)
Only source tipping this race at all.
R2Split — skip
#3 HIGH SOCIETY GIRL / #5 SMILING ASSASSIN
John → 3Terry → 5Terry SACKS #1 Chief Little Rock
Two sources, no overlap.
R3LOCK
#8 TYUSIX
Kelton BEST VALUEJohnSimon
WHYKelton: "Should be at peak fitness here third-up. Maps nicely and comes in well after the claim for Inglese."
Terry is on #3 Navy Rok; Simon's Back of the day is #9 Dirty Deal.
R4Split — skip
#8 ZESTIMAN / #7 EXTREMELY ROWDY
John BACK → 8Terry CRACK → 7
Two headline calls on opposite horses.
R5Dead 2–2 split
#3 PURFECT LINE / #11 BRIMARVIE ROSEMARIE
John → 3Tim BACK → 3 ($2.10 top 5)Terry → 11 ($1.91 top 5)Simon → 11 (top 4)
Both camps are backing their pick in the More Places market rather than to win — nobody is confident.
R6LOCK
#12 NICAJON
Kelton BEST BETJohn (Crack + top 3 multi)Terry
WHYKelton: "He might be 12 years old but he's in super form. Should have gone close last week."
Tim has #6 Phineas, Simon #4 Mystic Wonder and Sacks #5 Brave Star. A 12-year-old on a Heavy 8 is a stamina-and-surface question nobody here answers.
R7LOCKBest SA consensus
#9 THE COSMIC ONE$1.57 top 4
Kelton NEXT BESTJohnTerryTim (Crack + Team Multi)John & Tim SACK #1 Mating Call
WHYKelton: "Building a good winning record early in his career. Covered extra ground last start and won." Four of five sources, and two independently oppose the favourite.
Simon is alone on #4 Cash.
R8PREM
#13 EXTRA CHILL$1.80 top 5
JohnTerry (Trixie + Team Multi)
Terry only wants him top 5, not to win. Simon prefers #10 Mr Trafficanter.
R9PREM
#10 SUPER WONDER$1.62 top 4
JohnTim (Trixie + Get Out Stakes)
Tim's Get Out Stakes of the day. Terry is on #7 Fill A Promise ($1.70 top 5), Simon on #12 Rich Britt.
☀️ EAGLE FARMSOFT 5Fine forecast
Wintelligence expect it to present in perfect order; an upgrade into the good range wouldn't surprise. Coverage is thin — Wintelligence's full preview, Wizard of Odds' Best Bet, one Brad Davidson value play and Rebecca Hill's Tipping Hub pick. Prices are Wintelligence's.
R1BM68 3YO & 4YO · 1000mPREM
#3 HOWDOYOUZOU$3.20
WIZARD OF ODDS BEST BETWintelligence 6/10
WHYPat Webster running at a 21% strike rate. Hasn't missed a place in five starts including two wins, has won on the Soft and at 1000m, trialled well, perfect draw, McMurray claims 1.5kg.
The Wizard's record: 27 Best Bets in 2026 for 9-5-1 — 33% win, 56% place — and all three of his tips won last week. Wintelligence's Value: #9 Idleonby $11 / $2.70.
R2BM70 · 2200m
SARAH'S SONNETS$4.80
Wintelligence 5/10
Value: #9 Bon Riviere $8.00 / $2.80 · Longshot: #7 Whatjeudoin' $13 / $3.90
R3Class 3 Plate · 1600mAVOID
ROBRICK$6.50 / $2.10
Wintelligence 3/10
Lowest confidence race across all three Wintelligence cards. Value: #6 Pure Alpha $4.50. Leave it alone.
R43YO Handicap · 1400m
EXCEED THE SALE$2.70
Wintelligence 5/10
Value: #3 High Authority $4.00
R5BM70 · 1200mPREM
MIDNIGHT SPIRIT$5.50 / $2.30
Wintelligence 7/10
One of only two high-confidence Eagle Farm races. Value: #5 Stormland $13 / $4.20 · Longshot: #13 Show 'Em Howl $23 / $6.00
R6BM78 · 1000m
THE FIXER$7.00 / $2.75
Wintelligence 5/10
Value: #2 Moonhaven $18 / $6.00 · Longshot: #12 Get Ready Lass $13 / $3.60
R7BM78 · 1400mOPPOSE THE FAV
#5 GAMBINO$6.50
Brad Davidson VALUEvs Wintelligence's Grinzinger Champ $2.50
WHYBrad's only Eagle Farm play and it's against the favourite. "Flying without much luck this prep and should be strong at the end of 1400m. The fav is flying but all her form is against inferior opposition across the road at Doomben."
R8Open Handicap · 1000mPREM
#5 POLYGLOT$2.80
Rebecca Hill BEST BETWintelligence 6/10
WHYHill: "Last-start winner. Steps up to open company but the form around him is solid and he drops 7kg." Value: #10 Tiger Tie $7.00 / $2.20
R9BM85 · 1600mPREM
LIVALITTLE$3.40
Wintelligence 7/10
Value: #4 Viminele $9.50 / $2.70
R10BM85 · 1200mSHE'S EXOTIC SCR
#6 BRAVEHEART$3.50
Wintelligence updated
She's Exotic was the original top pick at $13 / $3.80. Revised Value: #14 Hopper $8.50 / $2.40
The three sources carrying the most weight in the consensus, given their own tab. Brad Davidson is weighted highest (1.6×) at your call, then Ozracingform and Wintelligence at 1.35×. Everything below is their raw card, not our consensus read — so you can see what they actually said before it got blended.
📋 Davo's card Brad Davidson · weight 1.6×
🎲 MULTI OF THE DAY
Rosehill R3 #3 Aethelwulf to win → Caulfield R6 #9 Bridal Waltz to win.
A mega lock into his own contrarian pick against a mega lock — about $6 the pair. Note he has Bridal Waltz on top of The Heath ahead of Oliveanotherday, which no other source does.
A mega lock into his own contrarian pick against a mega lock — about $6 the pair. Note he has Bridal Waltz on top of The Heath ahead of Oliveanotherday, which no other source does.
🎯 His declared bets, by his own confidence
| Conf | Race | Selection | He rates | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEDIUM | Rose R9 | #7 Althoff | $2.00 | Best · win |
| MEDIUM | Rose R3 | #3 Aethelwulf | $1.40 | Best · win or multi |
| MED-LOW | Rose R5 | #11 Stagnum | $9.00 | Value · 1×5 EW, more place |
| MED-LOW | Caul R6 | #9 Bridal Waltz | $4.00 | Value · win |
| MED-LOW | Caul R9 | #10 Yellow Jersey | $2.25 | Value · win |
| MED-LOW | EF R7 | #5 Gambino | $6.50 | Value · win |
Read the rated price against the market. Where he rates a horse shorter than you can back it, that's his overlay. Althoff rated $2.00 and paying $2.00 is no edge; Stagnum rated $9.00 is where he thinks the money is, which is why it's a value bet and not a win bet.
🗒️ Full ranked selections
| Race | Caulfield | Rosehill |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1-5-3-7 | 10-1-3-8-5 |
| R2 | 14-15-8-3 | 6-5-7-13 |
| R3 | 10-14-2-8 | 3-8-6-1 |
| R4 | 13-19-18-2 | 5-6-4-1 |
| R5 | 6-11-12-4 | 11-2-6-4 |
| R6 | 9-3-1-8 | 1-12-7-11 |
| R7 | 9-10-1-7 | 9-6-10-1-5 |
| R8 | 3-12-7-10-5-2 | 6-4-1-8 |
| R9 | 10-16-7-9 | 7-3-1-10 |
| R10 | 11-12-1-5 | 2-11-7-4 |
Bold = a declared bet, not just a ranking. Note Rosehill R4 (19) is scratched from the Caulfield R4 line and Rosehill R10's original top pick Amazing Eagle is out.
🚫 TAKING THEM ON
Brad's oppose list — horses he thinks are too short — is empty this week. "Nothing I'm taking on at this stage." When that list has a name on it, it's worth more than most of his tips.
🐊 Gator's Top 5 Ozracingform · weight 1.35×
ℹ️ WHY THIS ONE MATTERS
Gator rates the top five in every race rather than picking one, so his card shows you the shape of a race, not just a name. He's also the only source all week who consistently comments on wet form — which on a Soft 7 and a Heavy 8 is the whole ballgame. His headline calls: Bet of the Day (Melb) Caul R9 Yellow Jersey · Bet of the Day (Syd) Rose R8 Blue Door · Best Value Caul R1 Butternut Princess · Best Each-Way Rose R7 Plagiarism · Best Roughie Caul R5 Flyer $34.
🏁 Caulfield
| Race | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 5 Butternut Princess | 3 Stealth Of Night | 7 Enviable | 1 Davida | 4 Stage N Screen |
| R2 | 14 Jenni Multabella | 3 Amleto | 8 Federer | 15 Blue Willow | 2 Makdane |
| R3 | 10 Darkbonee | 2 Saint George | 8 Litzdeel | 14 Shockletz | 7 Magnaspin |
| R4 | 18 Victorious Spirit | 4 Stylish | 13 Itazura | 8 Asakura | |
| R5 | 7 Flyer $34 | 6 Shadhavar | 1 Belle Cheval | 2 Salty Pearl | 4 Bossy Benita |
| R6 | 3 Oliveanotherday | 1 War Machine | 9 Bridal Waltz | 8 Inkaruna | 2 Pallaton |
| R7 | 2 Unit Five | 9 American Eagle | 1 Seize The Day | 5 Confederation | 8 Put To The Sword |
| R8 | 2 Jimmysstar | 10 Beiwacht | 5 Angel Capital | 7 Cosmic Crusader | 12 Treasurethe Moment |
| R9 | 10 Yellow Jersey | 15 Zakouma | 6 Wootton Verni | 3 Kingswood | 16 First Chorus |
| R10 | 1 Another Wil | 11 Sass Appeal | 2 Cafe Millenium | 13 Storm Leopard | 12 Ten Commandments |
🌿 Rosehill
| Race | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1 Federal Reserve | 10 Proxima Dea | 3 Doradus | 8 The Iron Star | 5 Orange Tsunami |
| R2 | 14 Think Back | 5 Xtreme | 6 Zalique | 13 Lovecats | 7 Zou Force |
| R3 | 3 Aethelwulf | 6 Anthracite | 5 Kenmare Bay | 8 Belle Detelle | 7 Appeared |
| R4 | 5 Avista | 6 Transcend | 4 Scripted | 2 Glasgow Miss | 1 Beside The Ocean |
| R5 | 2 Mr Miller | 11 Stagnum | 8 Botanical Boy | 3 Puntin | 6 Cuban Cigar |
| R6 | 1 She's An Artist | 7 Street Artist | 5 Harry Got Styles $21 | 4 Kimberley Secrets | 12 Oh Arthur |
| R7 | 6 Plagiarism | 3 Southend | 9 Savagram | 10 Genesis Runner | 1 Diameter |
| R8 | 6 Blue Door | 1 Guest House | 4 Warwoven | 8 Wild Atlantic | 5 Reveangeance |
| R9 | 7 Althoff | 3 Fully Lit | 1 Run Harry Run | 10 Rolling Magic | 2 Craig |
| R10 | 9 Photograph | 2 Grand Impact | 11 Monte Kate |
Rosehill R10 is the clearest example of why the Top 5 is worth reading: two of his top four are scratched, which is exactly why Grand Impact shortened from $4.00 to $2.10.
🧠 Wintelligence's Top 3 Top · Value · Longshot · weight 1.35×
ℹ️ THE ONLY SOURCE THAT SCORES ITSELF
Every race gets a numeric confidence out of 10. Use it as a stake multiplier. Their 8/10 races (Caul R3 Darkbonee, Rose R5 Mr Miller) are where they're genuinely certain; the 3/10 and 4/10 races are ones they'd rather you skipped.
🏁 Caulfield
| Race | Conf | Top pick | Value | Longshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 5/10 | 5 Butternut Princess $6.00 | 3 Stealth Of Night $6.00 | — |
| R2 | 6/10 | 14 Jenni Multabella $3.20 | 8 Federer $10 | — |
| R3 | 8/10 | 10 Darkbonee $3.00 · BEST BET | 2 Saint George $8.00 | — |
| R4 | 5/10 | 13 Itazura $5.50 | 2 Home Rule $6.00 | 11 Savisanta $21 |
| R5 | 7/10 | 6 Shadhavar $2.90 | 10 Gold Medallist $11 | 2 Salty Pearl $13 |
| R6 | 7/10 | 3 Oliveanotherday $2.60 · BEST BET | 9 Bridal Waltz $4.20 | 5 Harry's Yacht $17 |
| R7 | 4/10 | 9 American Eagle $4.60 | 1 Seize The Day $4.60 | — |
| R8 | 6/10 | 2 Jimmysstar $4.40 | 12 Treasurethe Moment $7.50 | — |
| R9 | 7/10 | 10 Yellow Jersey $2.35 | 16 First Chorus $6.00 | 9 Just Folk $13 |
| R10 | 7/10 | 11 Sass Appeal $2.90 | 12 Ten Commandments $5.50 | 5 Craig $15 |
🌿 Rosehill
| Race | Conf | Top pick | Value | Longshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 4/10 | 10 Proxima Dea $3.50 | 1 Federal Reserve $6.50 | 13 Channelling $15 |
| R2 | 4/10 | 14 Think Back $13 | 8 Giddy Up Griff $9.50 | — |
| R3 | 7/10 | 3 Aethelwulf $1.55 | 6 Anthracite $8.50 | — |
| R4 | 5/10 | 5 Avista $3.50 | 4 Scripted $5.00 | 3 Just In Time $26 |
| R5 | 8/10 | 2 Mr Miller $1.95 · BEST BET | 11 Stagnum $10 | 8 Botanical Boy $11 |
| R6 | 5/10 | 4 Kimberley Secrets $5.50 | — | — |
| R7 | 5/10 | 9 Savagram $4.80 | 6 Plagiarism $4.60 | — |
| R8 | 5/10 | 6 Blue Door $2.15 | 8 Wild Atlantic $7.00 | — |
| R9 | 5/10 | 7 Althoff $2.00 | 3 Fully Lit $4.60 | 8 Fortune $34 |
| R10 | 7/10 | 2 Grand Impact $2.10 | 4 Cosmic Fire $5.00 | — |
☀️ Eagle Farm
| Race | Conf | Top pick | Value | Longshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 6/10 | 3 Howdoyouzou $3.30 | 9 Idleonby $11 | — |
| R2 | 5/10 | Sarah's Sonnets $4.80 | 9 Bon Riviere $8.00 | 7 Whatjeudoin' $13 |
| R3 | 3/10 | Robrick $6.50 | 6 Pure Alpha $4.50 | — |
| R4 | 5/10 | Exceed The Sale $2.70 | 3 High Authority $4.00 | — |
| R5 | 7/10 | Midnight Spirit $5.50 | 5 Stormland $13 | 13 Show 'Em Howl $23 |
| R6 | 5/10 | The Fixer $7.00 | 2 Moonhaven $18 | 12 Get Ready Lass $13 |
| R7 | 6/10 | Grinzinger Champ $2.50 | 2 Zouper Fund $9.50 | 10 Rezone $18 |
| R8 | 6/10 | 5 Polyglot $2.80 | 10 Tiger Tie $7.00 | — |
| R9 | 7/10 | Livalittle $3.40 | 4 Viminele $9.50 | — |
| R10 | 5/10 | 6 Braveheart $3.50 | 14 Hopper $8.50 | — |
Live results, pulled automatically and matched against every tip we logged. Everything on this page comes from the database, not the sheet — so it keeps updating after the sheet is written. ⚙️ Poller setup
📡 POLLER STATUS
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✅ BANKED WINS
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🏁 Race by race
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🏆 Tipster scoreboard Builds week on week
Prices arrive the next morning. Betfair publish their starting-price file a day in arrears, so P&L reads pending until then while strike rates are live immediately. Profit/loss is 1 unit level stakes at Betfair SP. One meeting is noise — this becomes meaningful around the eight-week mark, at which point the manual weights get retired and replaced by what the numbers actually say.
| Tipster | Weight | Settled | Wins | Win % | P/L units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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📐 Tier scoreboard Does the consensus actually work?
| Tier | Settled | Wins | Win % | P/L units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Every track today is Soft 5 or worse. Most tips were filed Friday morning before the ratings settled — so wet form is the edge the tipsters themselves have partly priced out. Every explicit wet comment across all sources is below.
🌧️ THE ONE THAT MATTERS MOST
Caulfield R10 — Sass Appeal (11) vs Ten Commandments (12). Sass Appeal is an eight-source mega lock at $2.90 and OZR's note on her is four words: "Never seen wet." Ten Commandments is a "gun wet tracker... great chase latest and right with Rise At Dawn prior with 10kg less, which ties in with fave Sass Appeal. The opposite of Another Wil — wetter the better." Barker's pick, Wintelligence's Value at $5.50.
On a Soft 7 that's a live overlay against the most-backed horse on the card. Take the $5.50 as a saver at minimum; if the track rides worse than its rating in the early races, swap the primary bet.
On a Soft 7 that's a live overlay against the most-backed horse on the card. Take the $5.50 as a saver at minimum; if the track rides worse than its rating in the early races, swap the primary bet.
⚠️ WAR MACHINE FAILED ON A SOFT 7
Caulfield R6 — War Machine (1). Best-weighted runner in the race, G1 winner, trialled great, and Grace Hayes has $15 to win on him. OZR: "Failed Soft-7 last November and rider said didn't handle it — but did have a slow recovery. Hmmm." Today is a Soft 7. The mega lock Oliveanotherday, by contrast, is rated as having "advantage him wet."
✅ Proven wet — back with confidence
| Race | Horse | Wet evidence | Tipped by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caul R10 | #12 Ten Commandments | "Gun wet tracker. Wetter the better." | Barker, Wintelligence Value |
| Caul R2 | #15 Blue Willow | "Good wet tracker! Stays down in weights, Perfect Ten form ties in." | Kneebone, Simon |
| Caul R6 | #9 Bridal Waltz | Won 3 of 5 on Soft; wide and terrific in G1 Galaxy in one of the misses. | Brad (top + Value), Tim |
| Caul R5 | #1 Belle Cheval | "Unbeaten wet since that debut 3rd." | Barker |
| Caul R5 | #12 Photograph | "Loves wet and nice trial." Dual acceptor with Rosehill R10. | Zerafa (Get Out Stakes) |
| Caul R5 | #4 Bossy Benita | "Wet no issue her." | Grace Hayes $3W/$7P |
| Caul R6 | #8 Inkaruna | "Proven wet." Moral beaten fresh last prep behind Beadman. | OZR #4 |
| Caul R3 | #10 Darkbonee | "Just think it's advantage this guy wet (on the up too)." | MEGA — 8 sources |
| Caul R6 | #3 Oliveanotherday | "Do think it's advantage him wet and 1100m." | MEGA — 7 sources |
| Caul R8 | #7 Cosmic Crusader | "Unbeaten Soft." | Wizard top, Barker |
| Caul R8 | #2 Jimmysstar | "Soft track no issue." | OZR #1, Simon $80 |
| Caul R2 | #2 Makdane | "Won at the track & distance and on the Soft." | Wizard Each Way $7 |
| Caul R7 | #1 Seize The Day | "Two dominant wins in NZ on Soft at 1200m then 1400m." | Barker, Wintelligence Value |
| Caul R1 | #4 Stage N Screen | "Handles Soft ok. Building a very good record at 1400m." | OZR #5 |
| EF R1 | #3 Howdoyouzou | "Won 2 from 5 including on the Soft going and at the 1000m." | Wizard BEST BET |
❌ Wet queries — downgrade or avoid
| Race | Horse | The query | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caul R10 | #11 Sass Appeal | "Never seen wet." | Day's biggest lock, Soft 7 |
| Caul R6 | #1 War Machine | "Failed Soft-7 last November, rider said didn't handle it." | Exactly today's rating |
| Caul R8 | #10 Beiwacht | "Soft-5 no issue but unknown if wetter really." | Panel's biggest Memsie money |
| Caul R10 | #1 Another Wil | "Too wet in the Stradbroke latest. Handles Soft but drier the better." | Asgari's $10 win |
| Caul R7 | #9 American Eagle | "Not looking overly happy on Heavy-9" on debut. | Already carries a Sack |
| Caul R3 | #9 See That Storm | "Back on dry latest and back to best… check track!" | Hutchison's Best Value |
| Rose R5 | #8 Botanical Boy | "Won very well (dry!) then won again (ran time — dry)." | Wintelligence $11 longshot |
| Rose R5 | #11 Stagnum | "Would love a bone dry track too, but Soft-5 is ok." | Brad's value bet of the day |
| Caul R8 | #12 Treasurethe Moment | No wet note either way; case is all Caulfield-first-up record. | Unproven variable in a G1 |
📕 CONDITION COLUMNS — WHAT WE COULD AND COULDN'T CHECK
Rosehill (Soft 5): the Best Bets racebook publishes separate Good / Soft / Heavy selections per race. For all ten Rosehill races the Heavy column reads "None Recommended" and the Soft column is identical to Good — so at Soft 5 there's no wet-specific overlay in Sydney. That's a real finding, not a gap.
Caulfield (Soft 7) and Eagle Farm (Soft 5): the Best Bets VIC and QLD racebooks didn't come through with this week's upload — only NSW arrived. Those are exactly where the condition-split columns would have been most valuable. Last week that column is what found Nearco Frod. Re-send the VIC book and the Caulfield Soft column is worth ten minutes.
Caulfield (Soft 7) and Eagle Farm (Soft 5): the Best Bets VIC and QLD racebooks didn't come through with this week's upload — only NSW arrived. Those are exactly where the condition-split columns would have been most valuable. Last week that column is what found Nearco Frod. Re-send the VIC book and the Caulfield Soft column is worth ten minutes.
Group 1 Memsie Stakes · Caulfield R8 · 1400m WFA. Brad Davidson: "a terrific edition featuring nine individual Group 1 winners." No horse gets more than five of thirteen sources and the professionals are split four ways. Below is where the panel's actual money goes — real declared stakes, not ratings.
💵 Where the money is
| Horse | Declared | Backers | The case |
|---|---|---|---|
| #10 Beiwacht | $145 | Hutch $50, Richo $40, Zerafa $40, Asgari $15 | Likely leader, Rawiller retains after the All Aged. Two runs at 1400m for two very fast G1 wins. Wet at Soft 7 unknown. |
| #5 Angel Capital | $100 | Zerafa $40, Richo $40, Simon $20 | Way back and a good return in a high-rating race. Chased Jimmysstar home here in the Orr, both running proper G1 times and splits. |
| #2 Jimmysstar | $100 | Simon $80 — biggest single bet on the sheet | OZR's top rating and Wintelligence's selection at $4.40. Flies fresh, trialling as well as ever, Soft no issue. Beiwacht beat him at 1400m but he was back and wide against the bias. |
| #7 Cosmic Crusader | $30 | Hutch $30 | Wizard of Odds has him on top at $5. Match fit, unbeaten on Soft, terrific Lawrence win against the pattern. OZR: "sure to run well but $5 is thin." Barker's pick. |
| #12 Treasurethe Moment | $30 | Hutch $20, Asgari $10 | Brilliant winner of this race fresh last year. Loves Caulfield, excellent first-up record, maps for a lovely run. Wintelligence Value $7.50. |
| #1 Mr Brightside | $20 | Zerafa $20 | $11 and beat all-bar Treasurethe Moment fresh in this race last year — but now a nine-year-old off a long break. |
| #3 Tom Kitten | — | Brad Davidson's suggested bet | "Flies fresh at Caulfield 1400m. Is there enough speed?" Confidence Low. |
🧙 Wizard of Odds' read
#7 Cosmic Crusader ($5) on top to beat #12 Treasurethe Moment ($7.50), #2 Jimmystar ($4.33) and #9 Autumn Boy ($8.50). Note Autumn Boy appears on nobody else's list all week.
📐 Ozracingform's order
- #2 Jimmysstar — flies fresh, trialling as well as ever
- #10 Beiwacht — two fast G1 wins at the trip
- #5 Angel Capital — "he can win"
- #7 Cosmic Crusader — "$5 is thin"
- #12 Treasurethe Moment · #1 Mr Brightside · #3 Tom Kitten
🎲 Exotics on the race
- Richo: $20 box trifecta 2, 5, 9, 10
- Simon: More Places Multi — #2 Jimmysstar top 3
- Ozracingform parlay: R2 Jenni Multabella / R8 Jimmysstar / R9 Yellow Jersey — $25 spend, cost $100. Running balance $2,817.80.
🎯 THE HONEST READ
Five horses have a genuine case and nobody declared more than $50 on one runner. Beiwacht is the consensus and where the most money sits, but he's the one runner with an explicit wet question mark on a Soft 7. Jimmysstar has the best analytical support — OZR's top rating, Wintelligence's selection, "Soft track no issue" — and Simon's $80 is the single largest bet anyone declared on the whole card.
If you want one: Jimmysstar. If you want the race covered: the 2-5-10 trifecta with Cosmic Crusader and Treasurethe Moment in the minors is where the collective money actually points.
If you want one: Jimmysstar. If you want the race covered: the 2-5-10 trifecta with Cosmic Crusader and Treasurethe Moment in the minors is where the collective money actually points.
🏁 Caulfield quaddie Races 7–10
Wintelligence 59% for $100
R71235910
R8123571012
R910
R105111213
Brad Davidson
R717910
R823571012
R971016
R10151112
GetOn / Simon
R712459
R8257
R9101416
R1011112
✅ CONSENSUS CAULFIELD QUADDIE — 3 × 5 × 2 × 3 = 90 combos
R7: 1, 2, 9 · R8: 2, 5, 7, 10, 12 · R9: 10, 16 · R10: 1, 11, 12
Every source has 1 and 9 in R7 and 11 and 12 in R10. R9 is effectively a single — #16 First Chorus is the only other runner two sources cover, and he's Wintelligence's Value. $45 at 50c. Drop R7 to 2 and 9 and R10 to 11 and 12 for a $20 version.
Every source has 1 and 9 in R7 and 11 and 12 in R10. R9 is effectively a single — #16 First Chorus is the only other runner two sources cover, and he's Wintelligence's Value. $45 at 50c. Drop R7 to 2 and 9 and R10 to 11 and 12 for a $20 version.
🌿 Rosehill quaddie Races 7–10
Wintelligence 100% for $100 — best of the day
R7346910
R814568
R937
R1024
Brad Davidson
R7FIELD
R81468
R937
R102
✅ CONSENSUS ROSEHILL QUADDIE — 4 × 4 × 2 × 2 = 64 combos
R7: 3, 6, 9, 10 · R8: 1, 4, 6, 8 · R9: 3, 7 · R10: 2, 4
Both sources agree exactly on legs 3 and 4. $32 at 50c. If you trust Grand Impact after the scratching, single him and it's $16.
Both sources agree exactly on legs 3 and 4. $32 at 50c. If you trust Grand Impact after the scratching, single him and it's $16.
☀️ Eagle Farm quaddie Wintelligence only
Wintelligence 20% for $100 — skip it
R7235679
R82510
R91234512
R106111214
Leg 4 revised on raceday after the She's Exotic scratching (Friday preview had 4,5,6,12,14). Even revised, 20% coverage doesn't justify the outlay.
🎯 Multis & all-ups What the tipsters stake themselves
Brad's Multi of the Day
Rosehill R3 #3 Aethelwulf to win into Caulfield R6 #9 Bridal Waltz to win. A mega lock into his own contrarian pick against a mega lock — about $6 the pair.
OZR Parlay Play
Caul R2 Jenni Multabella / R8 Jimmysstar / R9 Yellow Jersey. Spend $25, cost $100. Running balance $2,817.80.
Last week: Cruiserweight scratched, Think Giant 4th, No Limitation unplaced.
Last Man Standing
- Zerafa: $100 win Caul R10 #11 Sass Appeal
- Hutchison: $100 system 2,3 — R6 #3, R9 #10, R10 #11
- Richo: $30 all-up win + $70 all-up place — R6 #3, R9 #10, R10 #11
- Simon: $100 all-up place — R4 #13 Itazura, R9 #14 Zahrann
Two of them build the same chain: Oliveanotherday → Yellow Jersey → Sass Appeal. That's the day's consensus all-up.
More Places Multi
- Zerafa: Caul R10 #11 Sass Appeal — top 2
- Hutchison: Caul R2 #3 Amleto — top 4
- Tim: Caul R6 #9 Bridal Waltz — top 3
- Simon: Caul R8 #2 Jimmysstar — top 3
Get Out Stakes
- Zerafa: Rosehill R10 #9 Photograph
- Hutchison: Fannie Bay R5 #2 Wild Beau
- Tim: Morphettville R9 #10 Super Wonder
- Simon: Rosehill R10 #2 Grand Impact
Hutchi's Exotic
Caulfield R3 trifecta — #10 Darkbonee with #2, #4, #8, #9, #14. Anchoring the day's clearest form horse and spreading for the minors. 20 combos.
SA Team Multi
- John: Morph R6 #12 Nicajon — top 3
- Terry: Morph R8 #13 Extra Chill — top 5, $1.80
- Tim: Morph R7 #9 The Cosmic One — top 4, $1.57
- Simon: Morph R5 #11 Brimarvie Rosemarie — top 4
SA Trixies
- Terry: R5 #11 Brimarvie Rosemarie top 5 $1.91 · R8 #13 Extra Chill top 5 $1.80 · R9 #7 Fill A Promise top 5 $1.70
- Tim: R5 #3 Purfect Line top 5 $2.10 · R7 #9 The Cosmic One top 4 $1.57 · R9 #10 Super Wonder top 4 $1.62
🔬 The Analyser Exact stakes, Caulfield
Ben Asgari — $160 total
R1 #1 Davida$15 W
R1 #5 Butternut Princess$10 W
R2 #4 Lincoln Rocks$2 W / $8 P
R3 #2 Saint George$10 W
R3 #10 Darkbonee$15 W
R4 #2 Home Rule$10 W / $15 P
R5 #6 Shadhavar$25 W
R7 #7 Phillip Island$5 W / $15 P
R8 #10 Beiwacht$15 W
R8 #12 Treasurethe Moment$10 W
R10 #1 Another Wil$10 W
Grace Hayes — $128 total
R1 #1 Davida$20 W
R1 #8 Miss Maranda$5 W
R2 #8 Federer$10 W
R5 #6 Shadhavar$20 W
R5 #4 Bossy Benita$3 W / $7 P
R6 #1 War Machine$15 W
R10 #11 Sass Appeal$25 W
R10 #13 Storm Leopard$5 W
Her biggest bet is Sass Appeal, whose only knock is the wet. Her R6 War Machine play carries the Soft 7 warning.
Four tiers, sized by how many independent people agree. A unit is whatever you decide — the ratios are the point. Total exposure below is 30.5 units across 13 bets. If that's more than you want on, cut the Roughies first, not the Mega Locks.
💰 The card
| Tier | Stake | Race | Selection | Odds | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEGA | 5u | Caul R5 | #6 Shadhavar | $2.90 | Win |
| MEGA | 5u | Caul R9 | #10 Yellow Jersey | $2.35 | Win |
| MEGA | 4u | Caul R3 | #10 Darkbonee | $3.00 | Win |
| MEGA | 4u | Caul R6 | #3 Oliveanotherday | $2.60 | Win |
| MEGA | 4u | Rose R5 | #2 Mr Miller | $1.95 | Win |
| WET | 3u | Caul R10 | #11 Sass Appeal | $2.90 | Win — cut from 5u |
| LOCK | 3u | Rose R10 | #2 Grand Impact | $2.10 | Win |
| LOCK | 2u | Caul R4 | #13 Itazura | $5.50 | Win |
| LOCK | 2u | Morph R7 | #9 The Cosmic One | $1.57 | Top 4 only |
| ROUGH | 1u | Rose R5 | #11 Stagnum | $10 / $2.70 | EW, more place |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | Caul R10 | #12 Ten Commandments | $5.50 | Win — wet saver |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | Caul R5 | #7 Flyer | $34 | Each-way |
| ROUGH | 0.5u | Rose R2 | #8 Giddy Up Griff | $9.50 / $3.10 | Each-way |
📏 Tier rules
- Mega Lock — 4-5u win. Drop to 3u if the horse carries an explicit wet query.
- Lock (3-5 sources) — 2-3u win.
- Premium — 1-2u. Skip entirely where a Sack call is live.
- Roughie — 0.5-1u each-way. Never more.
🚫 Not backed, and why
- Caul R7 American Eagle — live Sack, 4/10 confidence race.
- Caul R8 Memsie — nobody above five sources, money split four ways. Exotics or nothing.
- Rose R3 Aethelwulf — mega lock at $1.55. Multi leg, not a win bet.
- Rose R7 — Brad calls it a "deadset lottery" himself.
- EF R3 Robrick — 3/10, the weakest race in the whole preview.
- All Morphettville win bets — Heavy 8 with no wet-form data on any runner.
🎯 Exotic allocation
- Caulfield quaddie 3×5×2×3 — $45 at 50c (or $20 trimmed)
- Rosehill quaddie 4×4×2×2 — $32 at 50c
- Consensus all-up — Oliveanotherday → Yellow Jersey → Sass Appeal
- Skip Eagle Farm quaddie — 20% coverage for $100
Thirteen independent voices this week. Where the same person files for two mastheads — Brent Zerafa and Clint Hutchison appear on the GetOn sheet and the Racing.com panel — they're counted once. That's why the counts are lower than previous weeks for similar volume, and why they're more honest.
📋 What each source gives
| Source | Tracks | What it provides |
|---|---|---|
| Brad Davidson | Caul, Rose, EF | Race overviews with a suggested bet and stated confidence, ranked selections, quaddie numbers, Multi of the Day, and a "Taking Them On" oppose list (empty this week). |
| Wintelligence | Caul, Rose, EF | Friday preview + raceday scratchings update. Top / Value / Longshot per race with prices and a numeric confidence out of 10 — the only source that quantifies its own conviction. Counted once for both emails. |
| Ozracingform | Caul, Rose | The deepest form source. Top-five rated per race, Bet of the Day per state, Best Value, Best Each-Way, Best Roughie, explicit track and rail read, running parlay balance. The only source that consistently comments on wet form — it carries the Wet Trackers tab. |
| Wizard of Odds | EF, Caul | One Best Bet, Next Best and Each Way per week plus a G1 read. Publishes a running record: 27 Best Bets in 2026 for 9-5-1, 33% win / 56% place. All three won last week. |
| Best Bets Racebook (NSW) | Rose | Kevin Casey + Joel Marshall, and crucially selections split by track condition (Good / Soft / Heavy), a suggested bet per race, a How They'll Race pace map, and numeric ratings out of 100. |
| GetOn Tip Sheet (VIC) | Caul | Zerafa, Hutchison, Tim, Simon — Back / Sack / Crack, all races, G1 strategies with dollar stakes, quaddie, Last Man Standing, Get Out Stakes, More Places Multi, Hutchi's Exotic. |
| GetOn SA Tip Sheet | Morph | John, Terry, Tim, Simon — same structure plus Trixies and a Team Multi. |
| Racing.com Saturday Best | Caul | Five-column panel — Zerafa, Asgari, Hutchison, Kneebone, Barker — all ten races with Best Bet flags. |
| Racing.com Tipping Hub | All four | State Best Bet / Next Best / Best Value with reasoning. Adds John Kelton (SA), Rebecca Hill (QLD), Chris Camilleri and Harry White (NSW). |
| The Analyser | Caul | Ben Asgari and Grace Hayes with exact dollar stakes per bet and a declared total. The best read on real conviction anywhere in the set. |
🧮 Counting rule
- A source is a person or masthead, not a document. Wintelligence's two emails count once. Zerafa's two columns count once.
- A pick counts when the source has the horse on top. Value, longshot, second-rated and multi legs get noted but don't add to the count.
- A Sack is a hard no — it caps a horse at Premium no matter how many sources like it.
- Denominators differ by track because coverage does: 13 at Caulfield, 8 at Rosehill, 5 at Morphettville, 4 at Eagle Farm.
🔄 What changed this week
- Deduplication. Counting people rather than columns — Shadhavar's 9 is a real 9.
- All four tracks Soft 5 or worse, so it's a Wet Trackers week, not a Roughies week.
- Only the NSW racebook arrived — VIC and QLD didn't, which cost us the Caulfield Soft column.
- Wintelligence's raceday update landed three scratchings before the first race, two of which reshaped the market.
- Rebuilt mobile-first — sticky scrolling tab strip, 44px tap targets, single-column by default, tables scroll in place.
📥 Gaps to close next week
- Best Bets VIC and QLD racebooks — the condition-split columns for Caulfield and Eagle Farm.
- A South Australian form source. Morphettville had a Heavy 8 and five opinion-only sources.
- A Racing.com Rosehill panel — four Sydney voices against thirteen at Caulfield.
⚠️ STANDING CAVEAT
This is a consensus tool, not a prediction. It tells you where informed people agree and — more usefully — where they disagree and why. Eight sources on a horse means eight sources were persuaded by the same evidence; it does not mean the horse wins. Set a limit before the first race.
Gambling Help Online — 1800 858 858 — gamblinghelponline.org.au
Gambling Help Online — 1800 858 858 — gamblinghelponline.org.au